Wednesday, September 12, 2012

New poll: Elizabeth Warren pulls into a tie with Scott Brown in Mass.

By Richard K. Barry 

In a poll by Kimball Political Consulting, Sen. Scott Brown lead Elizabeth Warren 46% to 45%, which is well within the margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

In the previous poll by the same firm from three weeks ago, Brown led 49% to 43%.

According to TPM, the PollTracker Average shows Brown ahead, 48.6 percent to 44.9 percent, but things are heading in Warren's direction.

As Daily Kos writes:

Even more encouraging is President Obama's 16-point lead in the state, where his coattails can make a difference. The problem for Warren here is that 12 percent of Obama voters say they'd split their ticket and vote for Brown, whereas only three percent of Romney voters would consider voting for Warren. Warren needs to appeal to those Obama/Brown ticket splitters. The last PPP poll showed the way: tie Brown to the unpopular Republican Party.

Scott Brown is fully aware that in a blue state like Massachusetts, he needs to run away from his party. The question is, will he be able to do it?

As an aside, Sen. Brown has an ad out in which he pats himself on the back for helping to pass the STOCK Act, which clamps down on insider trading by members of Congress. You'll notice the part in which Obama tells Brown "good job" at the signing ceremony. You can't actually hear it, but a subtitle is helpfully added. 

I don't know that anyone will think this makes Brown bluer, but he's trying.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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