New polls: Tight races in North Carolina and New Mexico

By Richard K. Barry

PPP is reporting a post-DNC North Carolina poll that is virtually unchanged from last week. It shows Barack Obama ahead by a margin of 49% to 48%, which is little different than last week's 48-48 tie. 

In responding to why there was no bounce for Obama, they write this:

North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty intractable. We have polled an Obama/Romney match up in the state 25 times since November of 2010. Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other 24 out of those 25 times. Sometimes Obama's up by a little and sometimes Romney's up by a little but it's never outside the margin of error.

They conclude their report with the observation that  "North Carolina's been a swing state from the start and it looks like it will be a swing state to the end."

PPP surveyed 1,087 likely North Carolina voters from September 7-9. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0 percentage points. 

In New Mexico, where it has been assumed Obama is in a good position to take the state, things are tighter than some would have thought.

An Albuquerque Journal poll has the president ahead of Romney by only 5 points, 45% to 40%. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, is at 7% in the poll:

"When we look at the other polls that have come out over the last number of months, this race seems to be narrowing in New Mexico," said Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff.

Other recent surveys of the presidential contest in New Mexico by national polling firms found Obama leading Romney by as much as 13 percentage points, causing some political analysts to suggest New Mexico would break in Obama's favor without much of a campaign in the state.

Sanderoff said the Journal Poll indicates a notable shift in Obama's strength here. "Most pundits categorized New Mexico as 'lean Democrat,' but we might be moving back to battleground status," Sanderoff said.

You see, you can't take anything for granted.

The Journal poll was conducted by Research & Polling Inc. of Albuquerque from September 3-6. The sample is based on land-line and cellphone interviews with 667 likely voters across the state. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)