Another Super Tuesday -- Pennsylvania Edition
By Michael J.W. Stickings
UPDATED FREQUENTLY. SEE BELOW.
9:11 pm -- Hello, everyone. As Creature mentioned -- and make sure to read his excellent Pennsylvania primary post right below this one (or click here) -- I was on CTV Newsnet earlier this evening for a live interview segment with prime-time host Marcia MacMillan. For those of you who aren't Canadian, Newsnet started out as a sort of CNN Headline News. It has recently morphed into a rival to CBC Newsworld, the other major 24/7 news network, with its own regular programming instead of looped news delivered by a stream of anchors.
Anyway, it was fun -- and rather exciting to be on live TV. I was invited on as a Canadian political analyst, blogger (yes, the host mentioned The Reaction), and Obama supporter. I talked about why I support Obama (after initially supporting Edwards) and what I think Obama means for Canada and Canadians (good things, of course).
But enough about me. Let's turn to Pennsylvania:
9:27 pm -- No surprise. Hillary has won. The question is, by how much? Any margin above 10 points would, I concede, be a significant victory for her. A margin below 5 points would be a significant "victory" for Obama. Anywhere in between, from 5 to 10 points, would be, while still a decisive victory for Hillary, a sort of "moral victory" for Obama. He was, let us remember, down by 15-20 points just last month. As in Ohio and Texas, he has made up much of a huge deficit.
Right now, CNN has Hillary up 53-47. I'd actually be happy with that margin, but I fear it will be more. Hillary is doing well with rural and socially conservative Pennsylvanians, Obama with urban and, well, less conservative ones. Again, no surprise. We've seen this dynamic pretty much everywhere. High turnout among students, blacks, and affluent suburbanites could keep it close. High turnout in the rest of the state -- which I've heard described as Alabama in between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia -- could put Hillary's margin of victory where her internals had it, above 10 points and perhaps as high as 11 or 12.
Needless to say, though, not much will change with respect to the pledged delegate figures. Obama will still be well ahead, with an insurmountable lead, barring a major collapse. Even if Hillary wins Indiana -- and she will get a bump out of Pennsylvania -- Obama should win North Carolina by a solid margin. She could win Kentucky and West Virginia, but he could win Oregon. And so we could be looking at a draw from here on out. Unless, of course, the narrative shifts in her favour. Which is possible.
9:36 pm -- For what NBC/MSNBC has to say, see here.
For exit poll analysis, see ABC News and Mark Blumenthal. See also Josh Marshall and Marc Ambinder.
9:50 pm -- You want excitement? How about the Paul-Huckabee battle for second over on the Republican side?
10:01 pm -- One key pro-Clinton argument -- though it's mentioned at the top of this piece by ABC News -- is that Obama can't lock down the nomination, that he can't close. Is this a sign of inherent weakness, or what? I would argue that it is now. Hillary is a strong candidate. Pennsylvania, like Ohio, is her kind of state, a state where the Clintons have a long history, a state where she was really far ahead until Obama dramatically narrowed the gap. What's funny is that the argument that Obama can't close, an argument for Hillary, implies that Hillary is much weaker than she really is, that he should be able to close but can't. Again, it is Hillary's strength that is keeping her alive in the race. And although I would make the case for her to get out of the race, given Obama's clear delegate lead, I acknowledge that she is a formidable opponent who in any other year -- that is, without Obama in the race -- would be the easy winner. It is her misfortune that she is up against Obama. But even against Obama she's won some big states, and even after Super Tuesday. Not as many as Obama has, of course, but Ohio, the popular vote in Texas, and now Pennsylvania are collectively nothing to sneeze at.
11:10 pm -- I don't like the cocky Hillary any more than the desperate Hillary. And it was the cocky Hillary tonight. On the flip side, I thought Obama gave a good speech in Indiana. The excitement of victory wasn't there to lift his rhetoric up into the heights of inspiration, but I liked the toned-down Obama: confidence without arrogance.
11:14 pm -- Hillary's victory gave her a major popular-vote boost. As Yglesias points out, however, many of her big victories came on Super Tuesday. Obama has clearly been the stronger candidate since then. Plus, he's pulled well ahead in the Gallup tracking poll again. Will Hillary's victory in Pennsylvania lead to a narrowing of that gap? Or will Obama continue to be the preference at the national level?
11:40 pm -- Almost done. With 93% reporting, it's Hillary up by 10 points, 55-45.
Ambinder, earlier today, anticipating the post-primary spin: "Who Wins? Both, And Neither." Yes, but I do think this was a clear victory for Hillary. She has done what she needed to do: won a big state, as expected; bought more time; given herself a boost heading into Indiana and North Carolina (and perhaps a boost in contributions to a campaign that is essentially broke); and sent a message to undecided superdelegates. For Obama, though, the good news is that Pennsylvania is done. The long six-week campaign there was rough for him, but not much will change in terms of pledged delegates and he can now focus on North Carolina, where he should win, and Indiana, where he has a good shot of winning. The fewer the states left, the worse is the situation for Hillary. And with so few states left, and with the possibility that those few states will play to a draw, more or less -- meaning no significant change to the pledged delegate gap -- Obama's lead becomes ever more insurmountable.
11:54 pm -- Chait: "NBC's Ron Allen makes a smart point I haven't seen elsewhere: Hillary Clinton's two main campaign justifications contradict each other. Justification number one is that Obama can't win "the big states that Democrats will need in November." She claims this because she's winning those states in the primary, and she's doing it because she's winning a slightly larger share of the Democratic electorate there. Justification number two is that the extended primary isn't hurting the party's chances, because the Democratic base is bound to unify in the fall. As Allen points out, if that's true, then Obama shoudn't have a problem winning those states in November."
Yes, a very good point.
11:56 pm -- Hillary won affluent suburban counties like Bucks, Berks, and Montgomery (all N and NW of Philly). Scheiber notes that "Obama should have done better on the basis of raw demographics," but Hillary seems to have "[chipped] into Obama's coalition." How? The Rendell Effect? Maybe. (Two other key counties: Lancaster and York, both Philly exurbs, out towards Harrisburg. Obama won the former, Hillary won the latter. Basically a draw.)
12:02 am -- And on the Republican side... Paul (crazy libertarian) crushes Huckabee (crazy theocrat) for second! 16-11!
12:05 am -- Alright, that's it for me. Still 55-45. More tomorrow. Wait, it's after midnight, right? More later today.
Good night.
UPDATED FREQUENTLY. SEE BELOW.
9:11 pm -- Hello, everyone. As Creature mentioned -- and make sure to read his excellent Pennsylvania primary post right below this one (or click here) -- I was on CTV Newsnet earlier this evening for a live interview segment with prime-time host Marcia MacMillan. For those of you who aren't Canadian, Newsnet started out as a sort of CNN Headline News. It has recently morphed into a rival to CBC Newsworld, the other major 24/7 news network, with its own regular programming instead of looped news delivered by a stream of anchors.
Anyway, it was fun -- and rather exciting to be on live TV. I was invited on as a Canadian political analyst, blogger (yes, the host mentioned The Reaction), and Obama supporter. I talked about why I support Obama (after initially supporting Edwards) and what I think Obama means for Canada and Canadians (good things, of course).
But enough about me. Let's turn to Pennsylvania:
9:27 pm -- No surprise. Hillary has won. The question is, by how much? Any margin above 10 points would, I concede, be a significant victory for her. A margin below 5 points would be a significant "victory" for Obama. Anywhere in between, from 5 to 10 points, would be, while still a decisive victory for Hillary, a sort of "moral victory" for Obama. He was, let us remember, down by 15-20 points just last month. As in Ohio and Texas, he has made up much of a huge deficit.
Right now, CNN has Hillary up 53-47. I'd actually be happy with that margin, but I fear it will be more. Hillary is doing well with rural and socially conservative Pennsylvanians, Obama with urban and, well, less conservative ones. Again, no surprise. We've seen this dynamic pretty much everywhere. High turnout among students, blacks, and affluent suburbanites could keep it close. High turnout in the rest of the state -- which I've heard described as Alabama in between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia -- could put Hillary's margin of victory where her internals had it, above 10 points and perhaps as high as 11 or 12.
Needless to say, though, not much will change with respect to the pledged delegate figures. Obama will still be well ahead, with an insurmountable lead, barring a major collapse. Even if Hillary wins Indiana -- and she will get a bump out of Pennsylvania -- Obama should win North Carolina by a solid margin. She could win Kentucky and West Virginia, but he could win Oregon. And so we could be looking at a draw from here on out. Unless, of course, the narrative shifts in her favour. Which is possible.
9:36 pm -- For what NBC/MSNBC has to say, see here.
For exit poll analysis, see ABC News and Mark Blumenthal. See also Josh Marshall and Marc Ambinder.
9:50 pm -- You want excitement? How about the Paul-Huckabee battle for second over on the Republican side?
10:01 pm -- One key pro-Clinton argument -- though it's mentioned at the top of this piece by ABC News -- is that Obama can't lock down the nomination, that he can't close. Is this a sign of inherent weakness, or what? I would argue that it is now. Hillary is a strong candidate. Pennsylvania, like Ohio, is her kind of state, a state where the Clintons have a long history, a state where she was really far ahead until Obama dramatically narrowed the gap. What's funny is that the argument that Obama can't close, an argument for Hillary, implies that Hillary is much weaker than she really is, that he should be able to close but can't. Again, it is Hillary's strength that is keeping her alive in the race. And although I would make the case for her to get out of the race, given Obama's clear delegate lead, I acknowledge that she is a formidable opponent who in any other year -- that is, without Obama in the race -- would be the easy winner. It is her misfortune that she is up against Obama. But even against Obama she's won some big states, and even after Super Tuesday. Not as many as Obama has, of course, but Ohio, the popular vote in Texas, and now Pennsylvania are collectively nothing to sneeze at.
11:10 pm -- I don't like the cocky Hillary any more than the desperate Hillary. And it was the cocky Hillary tonight. On the flip side, I thought Obama gave a good speech in Indiana. The excitement of victory wasn't there to lift his rhetoric up into the heights of inspiration, but I liked the toned-down Obama: confidence without arrogance.
11:14 pm -- Hillary's victory gave her a major popular-vote boost. As Yglesias points out, however, many of her big victories came on Super Tuesday. Obama has clearly been the stronger candidate since then. Plus, he's pulled well ahead in the Gallup tracking poll again. Will Hillary's victory in Pennsylvania lead to a narrowing of that gap? Or will Obama continue to be the preference at the national level?
11:40 pm -- Almost done. With 93% reporting, it's Hillary up by 10 points, 55-45.
Ambinder, earlier today, anticipating the post-primary spin: "Who Wins? Both, And Neither." Yes, but I do think this was a clear victory for Hillary. She has done what she needed to do: won a big state, as expected; bought more time; given herself a boost heading into Indiana and North Carolina (and perhaps a boost in contributions to a campaign that is essentially broke); and sent a message to undecided superdelegates. For Obama, though, the good news is that Pennsylvania is done. The long six-week campaign there was rough for him, but not much will change in terms of pledged delegates and he can now focus on North Carolina, where he should win, and Indiana, where he has a good shot of winning. The fewer the states left, the worse is the situation for Hillary. And with so few states left, and with the possibility that those few states will play to a draw, more or less -- meaning no significant change to the pledged delegate gap -- Obama's lead becomes ever more insurmountable.
11:54 pm -- Chait: "NBC's Ron Allen makes a smart point I haven't seen elsewhere: Hillary Clinton's two main campaign justifications contradict each other. Justification number one is that Obama can't win "the big states that Democrats will need in November." She claims this because she's winning those states in the primary, and she's doing it because she's winning a slightly larger share of the Democratic electorate there. Justification number two is that the extended primary isn't hurting the party's chances, because the Democratic base is bound to unify in the fall. As Allen points out, if that's true, then Obama shoudn't have a problem winning those states in November."
Yes, a very good point.
11:56 pm -- Hillary won affluent suburban counties like Bucks, Berks, and Montgomery (all N and NW of Philly). Scheiber notes that "Obama should have done better on the basis of raw demographics," but Hillary seems to have "[chipped] into Obama's coalition." How? The Rendell Effect? Maybe. (Two other key counties: Lancaster and York, both Philly exurbs, out towards Harrisburg. Obama won the former, Hillary won the latter. Basically a draw.)
12:02 am -- And on the Republican side... Paul (crazy libertarian) crushes Huckabee (crazy theocrat) for second! 16-11!
12:05 am -- Alright, that's it for me. Still 55-45. More tomorrow. Wait, it's after midnight, right? More later today.
Good night.
Labels: 2008 primaries, Barack Obama, Democrats, Hillary Clinton
26 Comments:
I actually thought it was one of her better speeches. It will play well.
By
creature, at 11:35 PM
And, congrats on the TV thing. Until I see it, I'll assume you gave me a personal shout out.
By
creature, at 11:37 PM
Thanks, Creature. And, yeah, of course, I gave you that personal shout out. Until you see the clip, if you ever see it, you can assume that.
By
Michael J.W. Stickings, at 12:12 AM
クレジットカード 現金化
不動産
インプラント
派遣
データ復旧
コンタクトレンズ
不動産
投資
FX
アフィリエイト
キャッシング
toefl
パソコン自作
By
Unknown, at 1:34 AM
美容整形Job!美容医療業界への就職・転職なら業界に特化した「美容整形Job!」にお任せ下さい"。美容整形に携わるドクター専門プロフサイト 美容の杜モバイル QRコード
By
Unknown, at 1:35 AM
不動産ゲットは不動産情報 投資マンション情報や東京都 不動産、東京 不動産の賃貸,売買物件検索仲介なら不動産ゲットへ。
By
Unknown, at 1:35 AM
FX、外国為替取引はじめるなら、新東京シティ証券の『為替マーケット』。最新FX情報を手に入れてリスクの少ないFX取引!仮想トレードでの外国為替無料体験も。
By
Unknown, at 1:35 AM
引越業界No.1クラスの安さと安心。お客様にあった様々なプランをご用意。秘密厳守なので単身女性も安心のキング引越センター
By
Unknown, at 1:36 AM
アデコの派遣の求人情報・仕事情報サイトです。毎日更新される派遣の豊富な求人情報の中から、あなたにピッタリのお仕事をご紹介いたします。派遣の仕事探しはアデコへお任せください。"
By
Unknown, at 1:36 AM
「インプラントにしたい」と思ったときが最も治療に適したタイミングたまに「インプラントにするには何歳ぐらいが適していますか」という質問を受けますが、ご本人がインプラントにしたいと思ったときに手術を行うのがベストと思います。 実際に当院でインプラント手術を受けた方は20代から70代と年齢層も実にさまざまです。
By
Unknown, at 1:36 AM
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
エクセルヒューマン
EH株式会社
By
Anonymous, at 11:25 PM
アーネスト
賃貸
アクサ
三井ダイレクト
設計事務所
ゲーム 専門学校
ウェディング
ショッピング枠 現金化
By
Anonymous, at 4:32 AM
アーネスト
賃貸
アクサ
三井ダイレクト
設計事務所
ゲーム 専門学校
ウェディング
ショッピング枠 現金化
By
Anonymous, at 4:33 AM
婚約指輪
出会い系
治験
三井ダイレクト
アクサダイレクト
一戸建て
債務整理
ソニー損保
そんぽ24
By
Anonymous, at 4:33 AM
新宿 賃貸
人材派遣
ブログアフィリエイト
多重債務
バイク便
マンスリーマンション
印鑑
ゴルフ会員権
育毛剤
フロント サービス
By
Anonymous, at 4:33 AM
FX取引比較外国為替証拠金取引初心者レーシック 東京レーシック 大阪レーシック 手術レーシック 保険レーシック 失敗レーシック 失敗レーシック 手術レーシック 料金レーシック 費用レーシック 価格コスメコスメ ランキングコスメ 口コミコスメ 人気手作り コスメ家庭教師中学受験 家庭教師高校受験 家庭教師東京 家庭教師大阪 家庭教師家庭教師 格安家庭教師 受験家庭教師 派遣家庭教師 受験家庭教師 合格家庭教師 契約家庭教師 紹介家庭教師 全国家庭教師 東京家庭教師 大阪無料 レンタルサーバーレンタルサーバー 比較レンタルサーバー 格安レンタルサーバー 激安レンタルサーバー ランキングレンタルサーバー 初心者レンタルサーバー 比較レンタルサーバー 申込レンタルサーバー 簡単レンタルサーバー 無料生命保険 ランキング生命保険 比較生命保険 格付け生命保険 見直し生命保険 選び方生命保険 資料請求生命保険 解約生命保険 相談生命保険 掛け捨て生命保険 控除フェイシャル エステエステサロンリペアエステアジアンエステメンズエステ脚やせエステ本格エステ全国エステ美容エステ高級エステネットオークションオークション 統計オークション 出品オークション 落札オークション 激安オークション 相場オークション 掘り出し物オークション 携帯オークション 検索オークション テンプレートサプリメント 通販サプリメント ランキングサプリメント 健康サプリメント 用語サプリメント 激安健康 サプリメントサプリメント 効果サプリメント 飲み方ダイエット サプリメントサプリメント ランキング
By
Anonymous, at 2:14 AM
徐州回转支承 公司提供转盘轴承 --slewing ring slewing bearing slewing bearings服务. automation-industrial-industrial automation-slewing bearing
By
Anonymous, at 12:50 AM
マンション 買取 1戸建て 査定 1戸建て 買取 SEO対策 福岡 賃貸 車買取 自動車保険 バイク買取 美容整形 労働問題 収益物件や不動産売却などにはマンション査定と土地売買と1戸建て売却が含まれる。 物件探しは広島 不動産 岡山 不動産 松山市 不動産 香川県 不動産 徳島 不動産 高知 不動産 高松 不動産をフルカバーしてます大手で 和歌山 富山 滋賀 石川 山梨 新潟 沖縄 大分 鹿児島 宮崎 熊本 高知
By
Anonymous, at 1:30 AM
,中国的骄傲、这表明互联网普及后在线翻译的异军突起,的翻译更为准确呢?对此,笔者做了一个小小的实验。我们分别通过GOOGLE、百度、雅虎这三个在线翻译深圳翻译公司软世界的关注。喜迎2008中国奥运年北京翻译公司了。深圳翻译公司搜索巨头谷歌、俄语翻译,
韩语翻译广州同声传译百度对在线翻译广州翻译公司,上海翻译公司。,德语翻译,
的重视程度商务口译,同传设备已经说明一切。翻译是一门严谨不容践踏的语言文化。同声传译,凡购买中国移动手机充值卡深圳同声传译翻译主要以网络为基础深圳翻译.深圳英语翻译 ,无需制作炫丽的界面和复杂的操作功能深圳日语翻译,中国移动后台词库和网络搜索资源来获得最接近的翻译结果。所以 广州翻译公司,用户的体验不能停留同声传译如果广州翻译公司,韩语翻译的今天,同声传译偶尔会和翻译公司,东莞翻译公司。在线翻译工具的应用越来越凸显出强大的亲和力。法语翻译思同声传译设备租赁,是会议设备租赁,一项调查显示法语翻译思同声传译设备租赁,是会议设备租赁,深圳手机号码网,深圳手机靓号,有67.1%的用户同传设备出租会议同传系统租赁选择在线翻译会议设备租赁乘坐和所有客户一起分享奥运来临的喜悦。新疆租车,奥运喜充天”活动更多的是通过线翻译同声传译
By
Anonymous, at 4:14 AM
オークション バイク 美容 インプラント 札幌 インプラント 美容外科 インプラント 大阪 インプラント 東京 インプラント 福岡 弁護士 美容院 結婚式 英会話 エステサロン グルメ 東京 グルメ ホテル 探偵 口コミ 口腔外科 インプラント 治療 広島 インプラント インプラント 口コミ 大阪 インプラント インプラント費用 東京 インプラント インプラント 歯科 塾 広島市 賃貸 税理士 転職 ラブホテル 自転車 ネイルサロン エステサロン 探偵 ペットショップ リフォーム 司法書士 歯科 審美歯科 リサイクルショップ 興信所 探偵事務所 探偵 興信所 浮気調査 探偵 浮気 占い 中古車
By
Anonymous, at 9:19 PM
ブランド品 買取
インプラント
家具付 賃貸
東京 インプラント
パーティー
矯正歯科 名古屋
結婚相談所 東京
静岡 一戸建て 静岡 注文住宅
By
Anonymous, at 9:19 PM
高級住宅
物語の世界
描く日記
愛車
音楽のある生活</a
By
Anonymous, at 10:57 PM
saba
couler
county
muice
美容
健康
音乐
By
Anonymous, at 1:41 AM
香水
不動産投資
美容
健康
賃貸
不動産賃貸
不動産
不動産
不動産
不動産
仕事
転職
仕事
仕事
金融
卸売業
商業
不動産
不動産
FrontPage
Wiki
FrontPage - PukiWiki
引越
By
Anonymous, at 1:41 AM
cen
don
kou
die
opin
idi
fds
By
Anonymous, at 2:28 AM
大阪 デリヘル
仙台 デリヘル
仙台 デリヘル
仙台 デリヘル
家族葬
滋賀 賃貸
アダルト SEO
被リンク
茶道具 買取
絵画 買取
レザー
革小物
クレジットカード 現金化
現金化
ショッピング枠 現金化
クレジットカード 現金化
現金化
ショッピング枠 現金化
キャッシング
大阪 賃貸
中古車 販売
ルームウェア
大阪 マンション
賃貸マンション 神戸
中古 ゴルフクラブ
クールビズ
フィットネスクラブ
大阪府 司法書士
クレジット 申し込み
ベビードール
矯正歯科 東京
ホワイトニング 東京
大阪 ラブホテル
リサイクルショップ
不動産
カードローン
投資 信託
下着
即日 キャッシング
三井住友銀行
神戸市 中央区 税理士
FX
消費者金融
ローン
引越し
生命保険
ジェルネイル
人材派遣
ネット証券
アフィリエイト
格安航空券
ウィークリーマンション
レンタカー
SEO
オフィス家具
合宿免許
ペット用品
高速バス
デリヘル
キャバクラ
派遣
コラーゲン
化粧品
インテリア
ウェディング
結婚相談
投資物件
留学
貸事務所 大阪
経営コンサルティング
工芸品
高級品
自動車保険
ホテヘル
レストランウェディング
バイク買取
運転免許
ベビーカー
外反母趾
圧力鍋
腕時計
フェラガモ
デリヘル
キャバクラ
セレブ
プラセンタ
カルシウム
青汁
ブルーベリー
家具
脱毛クリーム
除毛クリーム
コスト削減 大阪
弁護士 大阪
車買取 大阪
バイク買取 大阪
エステ 大阪
リフォーム 大阪
大阪 歯科
派遣 大阪
アルバイト 大阪
転職 大阪
大阪 住宅
大阪 専門学校
グルメ 大阪
ホテル 大阪
一戸建て 大阪
大阪 宿泊
大阪 マンション
デリヘル 大阪
印刷 大阪
不動産 大阪
賃貸 大阪
ブライダル 大阪
リサイクル
アダルト SEO
賃貸
SEO 大阪
イベント コンパニオン 大阪
転職 大阪
大阪 ラブホ
ペット ショップ 大阪
豆腐
京都 不動産
運転免許 合宿
ヘアアイロン
ダイエット
ダイエット
デリヘル
キャバクラ
シャンパン
老人ホーム
精力剤
大阪 ラブホテル
ブランド品 買取
ワイン
京都 不動産
ペット
リサイクルショップ
歯科求人
結婚式場
バイク便
動物病院
美容整形外科
エルメス
FX
FX 比較
FX 初心者
By
Unknown, at 7:40 AM
Post a Comment
<< Home