Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Rudy's in (almost)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Yes, it looks like Rudy Giuliani is running for president after all. (Maybe.)

(By the way, did you know he was actually the mayor of New York on 9/11? Huh. I had no idea. I mean, he could have told us or something.)

He polls well -- vague memories of heroism and all -- but I'm with Drum on this: "The average voter has vague, positive impressions of Rudy thanks to his 9/11 heroics, and these people are going to be unpleasantly surprised when they see him for the first time in years and he turns out to be nastier than they remember (not to mention being freighted down by a closet full of skeletons they didn't know about). He has nowhere to go but down."

And that's where he'll go. Down. (If you want to know why he won't make it through the Republican primaries, just watch Jesus Camp, which I finally saw for the first time over the weekend. Scary stuff. And very non-Rudy.)

See also Taylor Marsh and, on the more supportive side, Ed Morrissey. (And also WaPo.)

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UPDATE: See Glenn Greenwald, who looks at Giuliani's "compatibility with the Republican Christian base" and determines that he is, contrary to conventional wisdom, quite compatible with it. One key reason: Giuliani is suitably "authoritarian" for the right, which is looking for a "Churchillian hero". Whether or not Giuliani is such a hero is another matter (and I would say he isn't); the point is that he is perceived to be such a hero. In addition, there isn't an obvious choice for the base. Romney isn't conservative enough and has a more liberal-moderate background that he wants to let on, and Brownback isn't really electable. And McCain -- well, the base hates him. So why not Giuliani? It's a persuasive argument, though I'm not yet persuaded. The culture war issues are still huge, Giuliani's background is way too liberal for the GOP, and ultimately I think the right will find one of its own to support.

As always with Glenn, make sure to read the whole post.

For more, see Digby.

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