Behind the Ad: How not to make an attack ad

By Richard K. Barry

Who: House Majority PAC (Democratic super-PAC), in support of Rep. Nick Rahall.

Where: West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District.

What's going on: Nick Rahall was first elected to the House in 1976, and while it's always hard to unseat a long-term incumbent, this is going to be a real race. In fact, The Hill calls him one of the most vulnerable incumbents. Evan Jenkins (R), a well-connected state senator who can raise a lot of money, is the challenger.

The ad attacks Jenkins, claiming that he tried to "delay a water safety bill meant to prevent a chemical spill similar to the one that recently devastated parts of the state":

The spot goes on to tie Jenkins to the billionaire Koch brothers, Charles and David, who have poured millions into competitive House and Senate races — including hundreds of thousands into Rahall's district — hammering vulnerable Democrats.

It says that Freedom Industries, which caused the spill, is a "corporate partner" of the Koch brothers and suggests after Jenkins opposed the water safety bill, his Koch support increased.

Recently there was quite a bit of back-and-forthing that Rahall was contemplating retirement due, apparently, to attacks by the right, including from the Koch brothers. The story, reported by CNN's John King, included the claim that Rahall agreed to stay in the race on the basis of increased support from the Democratic national leadership. Rahall has denied he was thinking about walking away, but that's what you would expect him to say.

A recent poll has Rahall trailing Jenkins by a margin of 54 to 40 percent (conducted March 3-5). That'd depress me. A nasty race is expected:

"It's going to be quite ugly," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of The Rothenberg Political Report — a national non-partisan political publication that currently lists the state's Third District as one of seven "toss up" Congressional districts across the country.

"The Congressman is facing a reelection race like he's never faced before," said Gonzales who characterized the campaign between the likely nominees, Rahall and state Senator Evan Jenkins (R-5, Cabell), as a "race to bottom," with the opposing candidates – and the groups that support them – spending a lot of money to tell voters why the other guy is a bad choice. 

Grade: Much as I dislike the Koch brothers, the logic of this ad is strained. Something about the Republican candidate "delaying" aid money after an environmental disaster - and having ties to the Koch brothers who had something to do with, I think,  some other environmental disaster. And they have given him lots of money to run in campaigns, suggesting that they are buying his support to do things that harm West Virginians. 

In a sense, it doesn't matter. The Koch brothers are the bad guys, and connecting them to bad things that happen to ordinary people is going to be a major part of the Democrats campaign in the midterms. I like the approach, but not this ad, which seems dishonest to me, and might well appear that way to others. The bad guys are bad enough. Don't help them by making them objects of sympathy. By the way, I'm not saying there's no case here, just that the ad doesn't make it. D+

Behind the Ad: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce likes coal and Republicans who agree

By Richard K. Barry

As Roll Call reports, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has released a second TV ad this week cheering on another Republican Senate candidate who loves coal. This time it's West Virginia Rep. Shelley Moore Capito who gets the helping hand as she attempts to capture the seat that will be left vacant due to Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller's departure.

The ad follows a TV ad released on Monday in Kentucky that focused on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s efforts to support coal. Coal is poised to play a central role in both states’ Senate races.

I'm quite taken by the folksiness of this piece. I think they dug up Grandpa Walton to do the voice over. Of course Grandpa Walton (aka Will Geer) was a well known lefty in real life, and he is dead. Maybe they got Wilford Brimley. 

Same old pattern on the right

By Richard K. Barry

West Virginia Rep. Shelley Capito is running for the Senate in 2014. But, as in other races across the country, she is being attacked from the right for not being conservative enough. On a local conservative group's Facebook page they says she is “pro-abortion, pro-bailout and pro-debt: Shelley Moore Capito is just too liberal for WV.”

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va) is stepping down next year and this state is considered by most a significant opportunity for a Republican pick-up. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant may be the Democratic candidate and recent polling says Capito would receive 45 percent support and Tennant would get 40 percent.

According to The Hill:

In July, the National Republican Liberty Caucus, which has endorsed Tea Party candidates in the past, endorsed another Republican challenger in the race. It backed Pat McGeehan over Moore Capito.

In an interview with the Daily Caller back in April, McGeehan had this to say:

Well, I respect Shelley Capito for her years of service in the House of Representatives; however, I just believe that West Virginians deserve a true conservative in this race, someone who’s pro-gun, pro-coal, pro-life, and, most importantly, pro-Constitution.

I know it's the same old story, but the radical right continues to be hell-bent on defeating candidates in their own party who have the best chance to win in the general election.

Many of us keep expecting that the failed candidacies of people like Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle will stop the Tea Party madness, but it doesn't appear to even be slowing them down. Maybe movement conservatism is never going to go away, and that's not a bad thing for Democrats.

Behind the Ad: W. Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin responds to the NRA

By Richard K. Barry

(Another in our extensive Behind the Ad series.)

Who: Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Where: West Virginia

What's going on: Manchin has a new 30 second spot in which he talks about being a lifelong member of the National Rifle Association but says that he isn't tied to them on every issue.

The Washington Post:

“I’m a lifetime NRA member, but I don’t walk in lockstep with the NRA’s Washington leadership, this administration or any interest group,” Manchin says in the commercial, which debuted Thursday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Throughout the ad, Manchin is handling a gun.

Manchin and Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) introduced a measure on expanding background checks for those wishing to purchase guns, though the legislation failed in the Senate earlier in the year. This has made Manchin a target of the NRA.

 In the spot, Manchin tells viewers to tell the NRA to support expanded background checks.

 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Rep. Capito ahead in early polls in West Virginia to replace Rockefeller

By Richard K. Barry

Roll Call is reporting that Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito looks to be in a good position to replace retiring West Virginia Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller. This is according to a poll conducted by GOP polling firm Harper Polling:

The poll tested both parties' primary fields and theoretical general-election matchups. What is clear from this early read is that Capito is well-known and, at least for now, is well-liked.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Nick J. Rahall II led the field of potential candidates and appears to be the strongest general-election nominee against Capito. In a general-election test, 50 percent of respondents said they would support Capito, while 32 percent said they backed Rahall. Eighteen percent were undecided.

Obviously this is early going. Interestingly, they point out that because West Virginia is such a cheap state in which to advertise, name identification won't be a problem for anyone by election day. By the same token, negative ads and the characterization and mischaracterization of everything everyone says will be easily put before the voters. 

One thing that seems relatively certain is that Capito will be the GOP nominee, as she polls at 71 percent against her closest potential challenger, GOP Rep. David B. McKinley, who gets 15 percent support. 

Splitting tickets in West Virginia

By Richard K. Barry

A couple of days ago I wrote about the interesting phenomenon of good polling numbers for the leading Democrat in the North Dakota Senate race, Heidi Heitkamp, compared to dismal numbers for President Obama against Mitt Romney.

Those North Dakotans don't seem to mind splitting their tickets, and now we see that West Virginians might be viewing things the same way.

Daily Kos is reporting that a new survey from R.L. Repast & Partners on behalf of the Charleston Daily Mail finds Democratic incumbent Senator Joe Manchin up over Republican John Raese (the guy he beat in 2010) by an absurd 74-22 margin.

At the same time, Mitt Romney is out ahead of Obama by the very healthy margin of 54-37 in recent polling.

I get that Senator Manchin is a very popular guy, but that is some major league ticket splitting down there in West Virginia.

I guess if I had to choose one over the other, Imight pick the Senate seats over the available electoral votes. North Dakota has only 3 of those and West Virginia 5.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

John Raese, ignorant twit

By Michael J.W. Stickings

The West Virginia Republican, running against Gov. Joe Manchin for Senate, is a global warming denialist, an arrogant rich prick who inherited his fortune (and thinks he's virtuous for having done so), and an ignorant twit who, white as white can be, can't (and can't be bothered to) pronounce correctly the "ethnic" names of some of America's most distinguished non-white public figures. Think Progress:

[A]s the Charleston Daily Mail reports, this does not appear to be an isolated incident:

Last month, he struggled over U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor's name.

"Was it Sarah Manor, Sarah Manorgan, Sarah Morgan?" he was quoted as saying by a monthly publication based in Shepherdstown.

In an appearance several weeks ago in St. Mary's, Raese called U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu by at least two different Asian-sounding last names.

Raese's failure to remember a name that even vaguely resembles that of a recently confirmed Supreme Court justice calls into question whether Raese has paid attention to the kind of issues he would face as a senator. 

Actually, it calls a lot more than that into question.

It's ignorant, of course, but the disrespect, disregard, and disdain is evident here, and, while he has gotten non-"ethnic" names wrong as well, it's hardly surprising that he blatantly mangles the "ethnic" ones.

I know the word "bigotry" gets thrown around too much these days, but there is a sort of bigotry behind this. It's not just ignorance.

Thoughts on the mine rescue in Chile

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I was going to do some writing tonight -- and, yes, there's a whole lot to write about, with ever more Republican craziness polluting the public sphere -- but, honestly, nothing I want to blog about quite compares to the ongoing rescue of the 33 miners in Chile, trapped for 69 days a half-mile (a little more than the height of Toronto's CN Tower) underground.

It's simply amazing. And deeply, deeply moving.

I watched much of the Rays-Rangers game earlier this evening, but the coverage of the rescue on CNN and CBC has been absolutely riveting.

As I watch, the third miner is getting into the capsule, preparing to ascend. (What amazing live footage from inside the cavern.)

A few thoughts:

-- I cannot overstate just how incredible this is, both the courage of the miners through their long ordeal and everything that has gone into the rescue, an international effort that has become, understandably, a matter of national primacy for Chile.

-- I started off watching CNN, where Anderson Cooper, who thrives in such situations, did a great job, but then, at midnight, he turned it over to Larry King, and that's when I turned to CBC. King has had a long and distinguished career, but he's an idiot -- or, I should say, his questions and contributions are utterly idiotic. It may be a matter of age and general ignorance at this point, but it's embarrassing. When the second miner was on his way up, Larry noted that his name, (Mario) Sepúlveda, is also the name of some major thoroughfare in L.A. Who the fuck cares?

-- Larry aside, CNN's coverage has been quite good, with Anderson talking to a number of experts, as well as to the guy who led the drilling effort that ultimately got through. There were three such efforts, and this, B, is the one that made it to the miners first. Fascinating stuff, from a technical/technological perspective. And its coverage of the human side of the story, the key side, has been admirably respectful.

-- Check out CNN's full coverage, including an updated account of events.

-- I don't know enough about Chilean politics, and I haven't been paying close enough attention to this story the past two-plus months, to have an opinion as to whether Chilean President Sebastián Piñera, has been playing politics, using the story to try to score political points. What does seem apparent, though, is that the Chilean government is carefully stage-managing the rescue, with the president and first lady on hand, with the drama amped up, the tension and excitement building with each rise of the capsule to the surface. As someone on CNN suggested, this may be for the sake of transparency, understandable after what happened in Sago, West Virginia in January 2006. And, don't get me wrong, this is a story that transcends politics -- or should. And, again, I find it all deeply, deeply moving, not least when the miner (and the third one is just about to reach the surface) emerges from the capsule and greets a loved one. I just note that there's another side to this, what with the president standing there and with everything appearing so media-ready.

-- The Times (linked above) notes that "[t]he decision by Mr. Piñera, Chile's first right-wing leader in 20 years, to stake his young presidency on an unbridled push to rescue the miners was an extraordinary political calculation. But it has paid big dividends, bolstering his popularity at home and propelling him onto an international stage often dominated by other large personalities in the region." I certainly do not blame him for what he has done, and I do not criticize him for being there tonight, but it would be naive to think that politics had nothing to do with his decision. But hopefully he won't abuse this event (and his role in it) the way, say, Rudy Giuliani has abused 9/11 for personal political and financial gain.

-- For the most part, the coverage I've seen online has been excellent. Allow me to note one key exception: Michelle Malkin, who jingoistically titled her post "Celebrating American Greatness... in Chile." Seriously. I get that Americans have contributed a great deal to the rescue, but so did many others. I'm not sure if other conservatives are doing the same, but many conservatives these days -- and Malkin is just one of the most blatant examples -- are utterly incapable of viewing the world, including this heroic and spirit-lifting rescue in Chile, other than through the lens of (delusional) triumphalist American exceptionalism. (Canadians did a lot, too. Should I celebrate Canadian greatness tonight? Should I make it all about us? Please. I'm not that fucking arrogant.)

-- But that's not all. In Malkin's case, and this is also extremely common on the right, there's also partisan attacking to be done. She writes that the driller mentioned above, Jeff Hart, would, "[i]n a different day and age," be "the most famous American in our country right now." And why is he note? Because of Obama, of course, who is anti-drilling (and hence anti-Hart). This is stupid, if predictable. If Jeff Hart isn't as famous as he deserves to be, it's not because of Obama (or anything Democrats or liberals/progressives have done) but because of a dominant culture, one that the me-first, anti-government, anti-community, profit-is-everything right has manufactured according to its plutocratic greed, that prizes consumerism and superficial celebrity above all else.

-- CBC is saying now that some of the miners' families are planning to sue the mining company. With all the goodwill being expressed right now, it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

-- The miners apparently agreed to a pact of silence regarding the early days of their time underground. There are reports of infighting. CBC is also reporting that the miners want to get their story straight before speaking publicly, in detail, about their experience. Infighting is understandable, and so is the desire to keep what must have been an extraordinarily difficult time, full of conflict, private. Again, though, it will be interesting so see how this plays out, with books and movies to come. Will there be a standard account? If so, just how sanitized will it be, how packaged for wide public consumption? When will different perspectives emerge? Will the miners be able to maintain a unified front. It's unpleasant to think about such things at a moment like this -- I'm updating the post just as the fifth miner, the youngest of the 33 (and who had a daughter while he was trapped), gets into the capsule -- but the commercialization of this story is inevitable.

Anyway, three miners are out. There's still a long, long way to go, and of course any number of things could go wrong. But hope has prevailed throughout this ordeal and we are witnessing the culmination of a massive effort to rescue these brave men.

This is from the Times article linked above:

The race to save the miners has thrust Chile into a spotlight it has often sought but rarely experienced. While lauded for its economic management and austerity, the nation has often found the world's attention trained more on its human rights violations and natural disasters than on uplifting moments.

But the perseverance of the miners, trapped so far underground in a lightless, dank space, has transfixed the globe with a universal story of human struggle and the enormously complex operation to rescue them.

It has involved untold millions of dollars, specialists from NASA and drilling experts from a dozen or so countries. Some here at the mine have compared the rescue effort to the Apollo 13 space mission, for the emotional tension it has caused and the expectation of a collective sigh of relief at the end.

It is indeed an incredible story of human perseverance and determination. And hopefully it will all work out, with each miner, at long last, pulled safely to the surface.

Craziest Republican of the Day: John Raese

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Surprise!

The Republican candidate for Senate from West Virginia is a global warming denier. As he put it in an interview with RealClearPolitics, quoted at Think Progress:

The oceans that surround the world produce 185 billion tons of CO2 per annum. Man per annum only produces six billion tons, so what could possibly be the concern? One volcano puts out more toxic gases-one volcano-than man makes in a whole year. And when you look at this "climate change," and when you look at the regular climate change that we all have in the world, we have warm and we have cooling spells.

I suspect that global warming denying is quite common in coal-rich West Virginia, but of course it's a pretty standard position throughout the Republican Party -- even if, in this case, Raese looks especially stupid. As Think Progress notes, showing him to be a fool and perhaps a liar:

Human activity puts about 29 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, well over 100 times as much as all the volcanoes in the world. The oceans actually vent about 332 billion tons of CO2 per year, but also absorb that much. Human emissions have disrupted the balance of the carbon cycle, leading to rising concentrations of greenhouse pollution in the atmosphere. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by 40 percent, and global temperatures are on an inexorable rise, overwhelming any natural cycles.

Not that the facts are stopping him, as he is hitting his opponent, Gov. Joe Manchin, hard on energy and the environment:

Raese said that his campaign will launch a new television ad on Tuesday hitting his opponent-Democratic Governor Joe Manchin-for pushing through the state legislature last year the Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Act, which compelled West Virginia's utilities to obtain 25 percent of their electricity from alternative energy sources by 2025.

"We call it cap and trade Manchin-style," Raese said. "Do the people of West Virginia trust a governor in the state of West Virginia who has already implemented cap and trade here in West Virginia? They're a little concerned about sending him to Washington right now."

Right, it's just a market-based system, spurring innovation in the private sector, designed to address the most pressing crisis of our time. Why would a Republican ever oppose that?

Obviously, Raese is playing on fear, anger, and ignorance in a state that is worried about the loss of the coal industry. Given the poor state of the electorate, it may just work.

Especially if enough voters buy his utter craziness about volcanos.

Worst Democrat of the Day: Joe Manchin

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Another cowardly Democrat sucking up to Republicans:

In Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin's quest to strike a bipartisan chord as he campaigns to fill the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, he's joining the GOP's call to repeal pieces of health care reform.

Manchin endorsed President Obama's efforts on landmark health care reform and voiced support for the bill before and after its passage in March. Now, just five weeks away from a tougher Senate race than he expected against Republican John Raese, the governor said in an interview with RealClearPolitics that he supports many basic components of the law but volunteered that some of it needs to be repealed.

"I believe in health care reform. I don't believe in the way this bill was passed," Manchin said Sunday afternoon. "Why they overreached, I don't know."

The way it was passed? And how was that? With overwhelming majorities in both the House and Senate? With Republicans opposing and obstructing anything and everything despite Obama's many overtures and Democrats' willingness to seek bipartisan cooperation and repeatedly to cave in and make concessions to the point where the final bill ended up looking an awful lot like the anti-Hillarycare Republican plan from the '90s? I mean, it's not like it included even a modest public option, for fuck's sake.

I realize that Gov. Manchin is trying to win a tough race in a fairly conservative state, but wouldn't be nice if these Democrats actually stood up proudly for what they believe in and defended their party's record as the party of the sort of meaningful change America needs?