No excuses

By Mustang Bobby

Rep. Trey Radel, a Tea Party congressman from Fort Myers, Florida, gets busted for buying cocaine in Washington, D.C., and he blames it on “struggling with the disease of alcoholism.”

As the father of a young son and a husband to a loving wife, I need to get help so I can be a better man for both of them.

Setting aside the obvious cracks about having to be shitfaced to believe Tea Party crap in the first place, I’m not buying the line about excusing it because of his disease. I’ve sat through too many meetings where someone claims that the fault is laid somewhere else and that’s why they’re still using or drinking. It doesn’t work. Saying “I need help” is not enough.

It’s nice, I suppose, that Mr. Radel is getting support from his Republican colleagues and they’re asking for understanding and privacy, going so far as to say that now is not the time to consider the political ramifications. After all, the GOP has a fine collection of serial adulterers, johns, and self-loathing closet cases to pack all the available 12-step programs in every church basement or Quaker meeting house, so why should Mr. Radel be hounded from office?

(Cross-posted at Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

Behind the Ad: Ann Kirkpatrick gets a challenger

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Andy Tobin

Where: Arizona 1st congressional district

What's going on: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has represented the district since 2013 and had previously represented the same district from 2009 to 2011. She was defeated by Republican Paul Gosar in the 2010 election. George W. Bush got 54% of the vote in this district in 2004. John McCain also carried the district in 2008 with 54.42% of the vote while Barack Obama received 44.25%. It's generally considered a swing district. 

Republican Andy Tobin, who is currently the Arizona House Speaker, began his candidacy by attacking Kirkpatrick in a press release:

There could be no harsher reminder of why we need new leadership in Washington. Arizona is under attack by the federal government, and Ann Kirkpatrick is part of the problem. Kirkpatrick is so committed to protecting ObamaCare and supporting Nancy Pelosi, she has literally voted to shut down the Grand Canyon.

The Tuscon Weekly describes the race like this:

CD1 is now represented by Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick, who won a close race against Republican Jonathan Paton last year. While the district has Democratic edge, some of those Democrats are conservative rural types who might cross over for the right GOP candidate, so it's a competitive district.

The ad is of the general "here's who I am, and here's why I'm running" variety:

Rep. Alan Grayson has a challenger

By Richard K. Barry

Yes, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) has a challenger. It's some guy by the name of Jorge Bonilla (R), a conservative blogger and Navy veteran.

Bonilla announced his candidacy in a video, which I'll post below. Here are some highlights.

The central question of the 2014 election is this: Are we the people still capable of self-rule, or do we abandon the American revolution and concede that a small connected elite out of Washington, D.C., and New York is better capable of running our lives than we are ourselves? This is America, guys. We can do better, we must do better and we will do better.

I particularly like his exhortation that "this is America, guys." Nice touch, unless you're not a guy. And he says "we the people" a lot. 

Grayson lost his House seat in 2010 in a GOP-leaning district.  He then ran in a Democratic-friendly Orlando-based district in 2012 and won. In fact, Obama got more than 60 percent of the vote in the district.

The Hill writes that Bonilla is of Puerto Rican descent and writes for a conservative blog and that this might be interesting. Maybe in a mid-term year. I don't know. Grayson is pretty tough.



(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Behind the Ad: The DSCC and Senate Majority PAC have a first go at Gabriel Gomez

By Richard K. Barry

Who: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and Senate Majority PAC

Where: Massachusetts

What's going on: Election day is June 25th for the special election to fill Secretary of State John Kerry's Senate seat. Some people think it's a competitive race. The DSCC and Senate Majority PAC may agree as they are spending real money on ad buys to attack Republican nominee Gabriel Gomez.

Roll Call:

[T]wo ads released Friday by the national Democratic groups specifically target seniors — potential high-propensity voters even in odd-timed elections. Neither ad mentions Rep. Edward J. Markey, the Democratic nominee, preferring instead to accuse Gomez of supporting cutting Medicare and raising the retirement age.

This is the DSCC ad called "Break:"

 

And the Senate Majority PAC ad called "Trust:"

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

The Missouri 8th stays Republican

By Richard K. Barry

Okay, no one is surprised by this, but Missouri state Rep. Jason Smith, R-Salem, won a special election earlier in the week over fellow state Rep. Steve Hodges, D-East Prairie, to replace U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson in the Missouri 8th. Emerson left in January after easily winning reelecting in November to become the CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperation Association, a Washington, D.C. trade group.

The Democrat in this race was a pretty right-wing guy, as you would expect in this part of the country. Hodges is pro-life and pro-gun rights, though local press reports say he combines that "with more traditional Democratic positions in favour of protecting social security, Medicare and the safety net."

Smith, soon to be Rep. Smith, ran a campaign on national issues like repealing ObamaCare.

Whatever the candidates ran on, this House seat has been Republican for 32 years and wasn't going to change hands this time.

Former Rep. Emerson looks interesting, though. As the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted:

Jo Ann Emerson was viewed as a moderate in Congress. Though she enjoyed permanent popularity at the polls, it was clear that her district had shifted her right in recent years. She bucked her party on issues like her support of embryonic stem cell research and her vote to withdraw troops from Iraq. During the district's GOP vetting process for a replacement nominee last spring, one candidate after another vowed to move the district's seat further right.

Oh, well, another robot for Boehner.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

Midterm Madness: California's 36th Congressional District

By Richard K. Barry

(Charlie Cook is currently calling eight House races toss-ups for 2014. Seven of these are held by Democrats and only one by a Republican. Let's look at the California 36th.)

The California 36th is represented by Democrat Raul Ruiz. He won it against redistricted incumbent Mary Bomo Mack in 2012 by a margin of 52.9 percent to 47.1 percent. 

Obama beat Romney in the district 50.7 percent to 47.5 percent. 

According to Charlie Cook, rapid immigration of Hispanic and wealthy liberal voters in areas of this district made what had historically been a safe GOP seat a battleground district in 2012. 

Also important was the fact that Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack was helping her husband run for the U.S. Senate in Florida and perhaps didn't pay enough attention to getting herself reelected.

The midterm dynamic is in play in 2014 and it may be a struggle for Ruiz to keep the seat without the lustre of the top of the ticket driving supportive turnout, which is what puts this in the toss up column for Cook. 

Ruiz is a part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program, which is designed to help at risk incumbents, so they understand too. 

A name that comes up as a potential GOP challenger is Assemblyman Brian Nestande who, according to press reports, already has a campaign committee to run for the 36th CD. He hasn't declared but seems likely to run. 

Whoever gets the GOP nomination will probably work harder than Mary Bono Mack who has said she is done with politics.

The district's voter registration is almost equally divided and, as in 2012, both parties will focus serious effort here. 

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)