Thursday, April 02, 2015

2016: Too early to say anything, but we'll say it anyway

By Richard K. Barry


Jeb Bush leads the Republican field for the 2016 presidential nomination, but Hillary Clinton has a significant advantage over Bush and all other potential GOP candidates in a hypothetical head-to head contest according to a new Washington Post-ABC poll:


At this early stage in the 2016 competition, the prospective candidates suffer from image weaknesses, but the Republicans have a more acute problem. Most Republicans are not well known, but at this point, not a single one of six Republicans included in the survey has a favourability rating that is net positive.

Bush — by far the best known among those running for the GOP nomination — is viewed favorably by just 33 percent of the public, while 53 percent say they view him unfavorably. Only Clinton among all those included in the poll has a net positive rating, but by the slender margin of three percentage points (49-46 percent). Her favourability rating has dropped nine points in the past year and 18 points since she left the State Department in 2013.

I suppose the conventional wisdom is that Hillary can't lose, but I'm not so sure. If the Republicans weren't so screwed up and could be certain of offering up a relatively undamaged moderate, she'd be toast, and of that I am sure.

(Cross-posted at Phantom Public.)

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