Saturday, October 19, 2013

Charlie Cook changes 14 House race predictions in favour of Democrats

By Richard K. Barry

It's one thing to say that, in general terms, that Republicans in Washington are making themselves unpopular with the electorate with their latest shenanigans. The point is that very specific House races in 2014 may be effected, as highly respected political prognosticator Charlie Cook suggests. 

There are currently 231 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and 4 vacant seats in the House. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee posted some of Cook's analysis:

He writes:
“Mostly as a result of the damage House Republicans sustained during the 16-day government shutdown, we are making changes to our ratings in 15 House seats, all but one in Democrats' direction. Democrats still have a very uphill climb to a majority, and it's doubtful they can sustain this month's momentum for another year. But Republicans' actions have energized Democratic fundraising and recruiting efforts and handed Democrats a potentially effective message. 

So, it won't be a walk in the park for the Democrats to get the House back, but they have to like their changes as of late.

CA-31 Gary Miller (R) Toss Up to Lean D
CA-41 Mark Takano (D) Likely D to Solid D
CO-06 Mike Coffman (R) Lean R to Toss Up
FL-22 Lois Frankel (D) Likely D to Solid D
MI-03 Justin Amash (R) Solid R to Likely R
MI-07 Tim Walberg (R) Likely R to Lean R
MT-AL Steve Daines (R) Solid R to Likely R
NE-02 Lee Terry (R) Likely R to Lean R
NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo (R) Solid R to Likely R
NJ-03 Jon Runyan (R) Solid R to Likely R
NM-02 Steve Pearce (R) Solid R to Likely R
NY-23 Tom Reed (R) Likely R to Lean R
OH-06 Bill Johnson (R) Likely R to Lean R
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) Likely R to Lean R


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