Behind the Ad: Special House election in the Alabama 1st congressional district

By Richard K. Barry

Who: Former state Sen. Bradley Byrne

Where: Alabama 1st congressional district

What's going on: The Hill reports that Byrne will be going up with his first television ad, highlighting his "work as a public servant to clean up the state’s community college system." They say that the $47,000 positive spot will "air on broadcast for the week beginning Sept. 3, and on cable beginning Friday through Sept. 9."

You may or may not recall that Rep. Jo Bonner resigned this House seat on Aug. 2 to become vice-chancellor of the University of Alabama. Primary elections are on September 24. If no runoffs are required, the general election will be on November 5. If runoffs are needed, they will be on November 5, with the general election taking place on December 17.

While Byrne is leading in this very Republican district, The Southern Political Report offers this analysis:

The betting is that Byrne will not get a majority in the September 24 primary. Whoever comes in second is likely to run to Byrne’s right, setting up a contest between an establishment conservative and a more ideological, hard-right conservative. Notes Birmingham Southern political science Professor Natalie Davis, if his runoff foe “is a Tea Party type, it would make Bradley Byrne vulnerable. Absent that, he will probably win.” Former state GOP Chairman Marty Connors points out that “Bradley won a plurality in that district, but only a plurality.”