New poll show Obama way up nationally over the deeply unpopular Romney

By Michael J.W. Stickings

A new Pew Research Center poll of registered voters shows Obama with a solid lead nationally over Romney, 51-41. Obama has been ahead of Romney all year, though Romney was able to narrow his lead from April to June, the period during which he wrapped up the nomination, dominated coverage, and secured lock-step Republican support behind him. But Romney's general support has fallen since then, dropping from 46% in June to 41% now, while Obama's has remained consistent in the 49-51 range since April.

My sense is that Romney's support is dropping as people are getting to know him better (both him and his right-wing policies) and as the Obama campaign is ramping up its activities, including its efforts to define Romney and develop narratives distinguishing the two candidates from one another. Remember, Romney benefitted from winning the nomination without being overly harmed by his rivals and, more generally, by having his campaign in full swing since last year. (Romney's basically been in campaign mode since, what, 2007?) Obama, meanwhile, was busy being president and doing presidential things. But with fewer than 100 days left before the election, Obama is out there more and more talking about his record and presenting his vision for the future, drawing clear distinctions between himself and his challenger, while his campaign, clearly, is underway in earnest. If Romney is struggling now, imagine how he'll be struggling when things get even more serious after the conventions and when voters start paying closer attention to what's going on and what the two choices really are.

Now, of course, American presidential elections aren't fought nationally. And while Obama has a solid lead nationally, things are tighter in the key swing states that will determine the outcome in November: "Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year's key battleground states." Perhaps Obama's edge will hold or even expand here, if there's anything to my optimistic explaination above, but it's far too early, and far too close, to predict with anything even coming close to certainty how these races will play out three months from now. And, clearly, it wouldn't take much for Romney to pull ahead. A lot of money will be spent on targeted advertising in these states, and get-out-the-vote efforts will be huge.

The problem for Romney isn't so much that he's behind in these polls, though, but that his favorability rating is so low:

By a 52% to 37% margin, more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted prior to Romney's recent overseas trip, represents the sixth consecutive survey over the past nine months in which his image has been in negative territory. While Romney's personal favorability improved substantially between March and June – as Republican voters rallied behind him after the primary season ended – his image has again slipped over the past month.

Barack Obama's image remains, by comparison, more positive – 50% offer a favorable assessment of the president, 45% an unfavorable one. Even so, Obama's personal ratings are lower than most presidential candidates in recent elections.

Yes, Obama could be doing better, but at the very least he's hovering around the 50% mark. And I fully expect him to pull this up when he's out on the campaign trail after the convention -- not just because he's a great campaigner but because he'll be able to present himself to voters on a personal level again without the prism of the media and without the all-out Republican propaganda assault that has tarnished his reputation, reminding voters why they liked him in the first place and of all that he's done for them as president (saving GM, killing bin Laden, etc.).

But what about Romney? Is there any way he can substantially improve his favorability rating? Note that this poll was conducted before his disastrous foreign tour. And, well, he's Mitt Romney. He just isn't a likeable guy. He's an arrogant, smug, out-of-touch douchebag with limited political skills and a penchant for turning people off. Even his own support his soft. Most Republicans seems to support him only because he's the Republican nominee, that is to say, because they have to, and because they hate Obama with irrational, relentless aggression and would probably even support Hugo Chavez if he were running on the GOP ticket.

And yet here he is, with Republicans behind him, after months of being in the spotlight, with less than 40% favorability and on a downward trend. Perhaps he'll show some improvement when he picks his running mate and later at the convention, when no effort will be spared packaging him as a wonderful guy, but then it'll be Mitt on the campaign trail again, and, again, the more people get to know him the less they like him.

In the end, Mitt Romney won't be able to escape his own worst enemy. Himself.