Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Can Romney win in November with Latino support so low?

...but Romney can't.

It's true that national horse race numbers on the presidential election aren't moving that much and it gets somewhat boring reporting consecutive polls within the margin of error. But some numbers, particularly for specific constituencies, are very interesting.

Today Latino Decisions released a poll showing President Obama with 70% of the Latino vote compared to 22% for Mitt Romney. To put that in perspective, Obama got 67% of the Latino vote compared to McCain's 31% in 2008 according to exit polls.

We know about Romney's problems on immigration issues and Obama's strength. But these are very impressive numbers for the president.

If you want to know how bad things could be for Romney, consider that 13% of self-identified Latino Republicans say they will cross over and vote for Obama. 60% of independents plan to vote for Obama.

As Steve Benen points out, "It's fair to say that even most Republican strategists believe Romney will have a difficult time winning the White House with Latino support this low."

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

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