The Syrian uprising's interested onlookers: Iran, Israel, Russia, and Saudi Arabia
By Ali Ezzatyar
The Arab Awakening has a common denominator: the people
want the downfall of the regime. It is a pretty good one, too. While it
ensures nothing, it is the first, and perhaps the most difficult, of many steps
before democracy.
Bashar al-Assad, Tyrant of Syria |
It goes without saying that each Arab country, with all of
its distinctions, will see its individual route meet special hurdles and
circumstances. An unfortunate reality is that many of these obstacles have
nothing to do with domestic considerations at all, but rather international ones. We
knew this. It's the story of the modern Middle East.
But what has become increasingly clear over the last 14 months is just how
important one of these countries actually is to everyone else. We get some
color on the American perspective by reading the paper. But this is how the
other important players are looking at the biggest prize of the Arab
dictatorship club, Syria:
Iran: The
world's initial fears that the Arab Spring would play into the hands of the
champion of anti-Americanism, Iran,
seem unfounded at this juncture. Tunisia,
Egypt, and Libya, for all
of their imperfections, have not turned into hotbeds of terror ripe for Iranian
influence. Syria
is the one country in the Arab dictator family that was traditionally
pro-Iranian all along. It was the only Arab country that provided material
assistance to Iran during
its war with Iraq, and it is
an important buffer and ally in Iran's
support of anti-Israeli groups. Syria
and Iran
share a disdain for the Saudi royal family; they also have had poor, often
adversarial relations, with the Arab world's West-friendly dictators past and
present. So while Iran touts itself as
the champion of populist and Muslim revolution, lauding Egyptian and Bahraini
revolutionaries as the continuation of the struggle for justice, it has kept
its hands muddy and bloody in assisting Syria's crackdown against its own people.
For Iran, the survival of
the Ba'ath regime is imperative; it is its only genuine ally in the region, and
it will stop at nothing, including assisting in the crackdown against innocent
civilians, to ensure that Syria
does not become the Arab Awakening's next casualty.
Israel:
Israel
often distinguishes itself as a democracy in a sea of dictatorships, but
it was
horrified by the Arab Spring when it began. The reality was, most of the
Arab
dictatorships had cooperative relationships with Israel, and their
powerful armies
had a leash on the anti-Israeli sentiment that is rampant among their
respective populations. There are even reports that Israel
explored the idea of sabotaging the revolution in Egypt in its early
days in Tahrir
square. But for the same reason that Egypt
was a potential nightmare, the Syrian revolution is viewed more
positively in Israel. Syria is, by any account, Israel's real
arch-nemesis. The two countries have been to war multiple times, and
Israel occupies Syrian land in the Golan Heights. A more democratic
regime, in Israel's view, is less likely to support
terrorism, and is less likely to align itself with Iran. There does
remain the danger,
however, of a more legitimate Syrian regime being more successful in
convincing
the world that Golan should be returned. That is bad for Israel. On
account of this uncertainly, Israel is watching developments very
closely in
Syria, with a preference for the ouster of the Assad regime, replaced by
a
weak, fragmented Syrian government incapable of challenging Israel or
harnessing support for anti-Israel groups in Lebanon.
Russia:
We can always count on Russia
to pull no punches with respect to disregarding human rights in the
interest of
geopolitics. And they are putting on a master-class display in Syria.
Since
the days of Hafez al-Assad, Syria
has been Russia's most
important ally in the Middle East; it houses
an important army base there and has billions of dollars worth of
commerce
with the Assad regime. In addition, Bashar is a key element of the
Moscow-Tehran-Damascus triangle, helping Russia compete with American
dominance in regional affairs. For the same reason that Russia refuses
to come down hard on Iran vis-à-vis its nuclear activity, it has
singlehandedly (making use of its sizeable influence on China)
paralyzed the international community's ability to institute a legal
reprimand
of the Assad regime. With Russia
on the Security Council, thousands more can die in Syria without the
United Nations
getting involved in a meaningful way.
Saudi Arabia: The primary outside supporter of the Syrian uprising, Saudi Arabia is
pouring cash and arms into the hands of anyone who will help hasten Bashar
al-Assad's demise. It is the most worthy of missions, in the Saudi mindset, to
eliminate Saudi Arabia's
traditional Arab foe. Among the many proxy wars these two countries have fought
against each other, including in Lebanon,
the downfall of Syria helps
further weaken Iran, the
country that Saudi Arabia
views as most dangerous to its survival. Iran
has called the Saudi dictatorship the least legitimate of regimes, and dreams
of the day Saudi Arabia's
substantial Shi'ite population, which happens to be in one of the most oil-rich
provinces of the country, will rise up against the Saudi regime. This is Saudi Arabia's
doomsday scenario.
And the Arab world's longest-lasting uprising continues.
Labels: Bashar al-Assad, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, pro-democracy movements, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria
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