The rise of Mitt, the end of Newt? Idle thoughts on tonight's GOP debate in Florida

By Michael J.W. Stickings

UPDATED FREQUENTLY.

Okay, let's do this.

-- For the record, American Idol was a whole more compelling than this ridiculous, faux-dramatic theater tonight.

-- I tweeted and re-tweeted a ton during the debate. (You can see those tweets and/or follow me here.) Here are some of my efforts:

"This may be the 18th GOP debate, but the humidity makes it feel like the 37th."

"I'm proud to be a card-carrying member of the secular elite."

"Give Newt the Nobel Peace Prize. He just solved the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in about 45 seconds. (Uh, no, not really.)"

"Yes, the best way to liberate Cuba is to isolate it and thereby keep it totalitarian. It's worked so well lo these many decades. Awesome."

"Wolf Blitzer makes Mitt Romney look like a man of extreme profundity and authenticity. And that's tough."

"Which candidate would be more willing to blow Rubio in return for his support?" (My bet would go to Romney.)

"I still think Romney's a Stalinist for forcing Mass'ers to have health insurance."

"@taylormarsh - It's not that Mitt's wealthy. It's that he's a privileged rich douche with a massive sense of plutocratic entitlement."

"'@kdrum: Romney sharper tonight, Gingrich off his feed. What accounts for this?' Desperation? New killer software uploaded into his cranium?"

"'@daveweigel: I bet Newt is dreading the space round.' At least Newt's got vision, though. Mitt's just got huge bank accounts he wants huger."

There you go. If you want more, again, go here. 

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If I'm giving out grades, and I suppose I am, here's what they are, divided into two: actual debate performance (how they performed in a vacuum) and expectations/needs (how they did relative to expectations and/or in terms of what they needed to do going in):

Actual debate performance

Santorum: A-

Paul: B

Romney: C+

Gingrich: C-

Santorum showed once again that he's a formidable debater. He was mostly crisp and clean and avoided any major mishap. Paul was fairly subdued, but his answers were often thoughtful and well-articulated -- particularly his answers on Cuba and religion.

Just because Romney channelled his inner Newt and went on the offensive doesn't mean he did well. He still looked stiff and sounded unconvincing. Pandering frequently, and seeming to be reading his lines, he appeared, as usual, remarkably inauthentic. Because that's just what he is.

Newt... alas. He picked it up later in the debate, but he was on the defensive early on and didn't seem to have an answer for Romney's various attacks, all of which he should have anticipated.

Expectations/Needs

Romney: A-

Santorum: B+

Paul: C

Gingrich: D+

Yes, Romney "won" the debate. The tide was already turning in his favour, with Newt appearing to have peaked (at least in Florida, if not yet nationally), but, going in, the clear expectation was that Newt, the better debater, would wipe the floor with him. Because that didn't happen, and because he exceeded the exceedingly low expectations he had going in, at least as the media was telling it, Mitt effectively confirmed his status as frontrunner and likely nominee. He was already going to win Florida. Now he'll probably win by more.

Santorum did enough to stay relevant. Social conservatives still like him. There isn't much Paul can do to improve his standing, but he was more coherent than in some recent debates. His cult still loves him, and always will.

Gingrich needed to win, and win big, to shift the momentum back his way, but, in a way, he was never going to be able to do that. A win would have been seen as predictable and so no big deal. Which is to say, he had very little to gain and a ton to lose. And he lost a ton. It's too early to say that his campaign is over, but what little chance he had just got littler.

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Oh, two more of my tweets:

"Yeah, so Romney finally got the message. It's not enough just to be a privileged rich douchebag. You have to be an asshole as well."

"So here's what happened. Mitt consumed Newt and absorbed his spirit. They are now one being. The new Romney is the worst of each."

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Okay, yeah, I'd say Newt is just about done. I realize that's quickly become the CW, and I don't want to be sucked into premature predictions (e.g., Perry will win... how can he lose?), but it's hard to see how he recovers.