NFL 2011: Week 13 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It's been a busy week in U.S. politics, what with the continuing rise of Newt and the predictable end of Cain, and, with U.S. politics the usual focus of this blog, we've been ramping up our coverage of the 2012 presidential race. So we've been a bit light on the football. Alas. I even neglected to put up a Thursday post for the Philadelphia-Seattle game.

The Kid picked the 'Hawks, while Richard and I went with the Iggles.

And, watching the game, I felt stupid. Philly's terrible. Sure, they're got enough talent, say, to win a game now and then, and even to beat a decent team like the Giants, but they've got so many problems, so many glaring weaknesses. I never bought into the whole "Dream Team" nonsense, but I did pick them to win the NFC East, in part because of their talent but also because I didn't think much of the Giants and thought the Cowboys weren't quite there. (The football media always talk up the NFC East for a variety of reasons -- east-coast bias, old rivalries, four teams with national coverage going back decades -- but in recent years, including this one, it's been the most overrated division in the league.)

But the signs were there, weren't they? I should have paid more attention to them: the unlikelihood of Vick a) playing up to last year's standard, and b) making it through a full season; inexperience and lack of talent at LB; Nnamdi playing in a new system that wouldn't utilize his strengths (and also Nnamdi getting older and maybe not being quite as good as everyone thought); DeSean Jackson's bad attitude; and, last but not least, Andy Reid, one of the worst supposedly good coaches in the league. Enough said. It's no wonder they suck. (If you want a lengthy analysis of all that's wrong with them, go check out Bill Barnwell's recent requiem at Grantland.)

No, the Seahawks aren't good either, but they were at home and at least try hard. Like I said: stupid, stupid, stupid.

Oh, and that Marshawn Lynch is pretty darn good. Who knew? (Well, my wife, for one, who started him on her fantasy team this week. No wonder she's kicking my ass this year.)

Alright, let's get to the picks...

As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty. 

I usually post how we did the previous week along with season-to-date standings, but I have neither the time nor the energy tonight. (I'm writing this at 1:05 am, after watching the wonderful movie Beginners, and after a long day, and will be busy all morning.) I'll get it up later today, after the Steelers game. (Unless my beloved Steelers are losing badly. Then I'll get off the couch and try to get on with life.)

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Okay, it's Saturday, December 24, Week 16. I'm finally getting around to updating the standings, going week by week. Here's how things stood after Week 12:

Last week

MJWS: 13-3 = 13 points
The Kid: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points
RKB: 10-6 = 10 points

Season to date

RKB: 119-57 (7 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 129 points
MJWS: 118-58 (4 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 120 points
The Kid: 108-68 (5 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 110 points

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I can, however, report that after some mediocre weeks I went 13-3 last week. I just regret taking the Bears over the Raiders as my upset. I was going back and forth, as I noted in our post last week, but I should have gone with the Redskins. Why didn't I? Because they, like the Eagles on Thursday, were playing on the road against the Seahawks, who have the best home-field advantage in the league with that awesome 12th man -- and because I don't exactly believe in Mike Shanahan (another of the worst supposedly good coaches in the league, though I'm not sure if anything really thinks he's good anymore) and Rex Grossman.

Anyway, here are this weeks games (not including Philadelphia at Seattle on Thursday):

Tennessee at Buffalo

Kansas City at Chicago

Oakland at Miami

Denver at Minnesota

Indianapolis at New England

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Carolina at Tampa Bay

N.Y. Jets at Washington

Atlanta at Houston

Baltimore at Cleveland

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants

Dallas at Arizona

St. Louis at San Francisco

Detroit at New Orleans

San Diego at Jacksonville

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, Carolina, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego.

There's no way I'm going 13-3 this week (especially not after losing a game already).

Let's get to my lock and upset, where I provide some substantial analysis.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Allow me to quote Cousin Sal, from his weekly gambling post at Grantland, addressing the prop bet of the Pats scoring over 34 points against the Colts: "This proposition might as well read, 'On a scale of 1 to 10, how big an a-hole does Bill Belichick feel like being?' I'm not sure if the NFL has anti-bullying regulations, but it might put some in place after this game Sunday."

There's a lot of parity in the league, and, sure, you know what they say about any given Sunday. But there is no realistic scenario in which the Colts win this game. It's the surest thing all year.

If you want to play it a bit riskier, how about the 49ers at home against the Rams? Okay, that's actually not much riskier. The Rams did beat the Saints in Week 8, but that was at home and the Saints don't exactly have a great D.

Baltimore should also clobber Cleveland.

Upset of the Week: Miami.

We base our possible upsets on pick distribution in Yahoo pick'em. If a team is picked by 35 percent or less, we allow that as an upset pick. Last week, as I mentioned, I was going back and forth between two possible upsets, the Skins over the Hawks or the Bears over the Raiders. This week I see 12 possible upsets.

Yes, twelve. Let's take a look:

1) Titans over Bills -- Buffalo has imploded after an impressive (but mirage-y) start to the season. The Titans don't exactly overwhelm you on offence, but Chris Johnson broke out last week and could have a huge game today. And Hasselbeck is good enough not to lose the game. Oh, and Fred Jackson, one of the best RBs in the league this year, is out for the Bills. I'm taking Buffalo at home in a squeaker, but I'm not at all confident about it.

2) Chiefs over Bears -- Pittsburgh didn't play well last Sunday night at Arrowhead, and the whole thing just made me sick to my stomach, but, you know, the Chiefs' D, while inconsistent, isn't bad, and of course the Bears won't have Cutler behind center. Can they stop Matt Forte? Yes, because they won't have to worry about Caleb Hanie and a generally unimpressive receiving corps. Now, while the Bears might not be able to put up many points, will the Chiefs be able to get it going at all against the Bears' D? Remember, the Chiefs are starting Tyler Palko again, who at times last week looked absolutely horrendous. Kyle Orton may take over at some point, but there's just not enough talent at the "skill" positions. I'll take the Bears at home, but K.C. could pull this one out.

3) Dolphins over Raiders -- I just don't believe in Carson Palmer. Granted, I don't believe in Matt Moore and the Fins either, but they're at home against a team coming in from the west coast and are playing some decent football. Remember, they almost took down the 'Boys last week in Dallas on Thanksgiving. I'm taking Miami as my Upset of the Week.

4) Vikings over Broncos -- I don't believe in Tebow either. (I won't get into it again here.) But there's no denying that he makes things happen when he needs to, usually in the last few minutes after he's played a generally terrible game, barely able to throw the ball straight. But the Broncos aren't winning because of Tebow but because because their D has been coming together nicely, especially the pass rush led by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, and because they've been going through an especially weak part of their schedule (Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, Chargers over the past four weeks, winning them all). They should beat the Vikes, who won't have AP again, but Minnesota has enough talent on D, including Jared Allen and some decent LBs, to make this interesting. Well, "interesting." It'll be a crappy game. And for the first time this year, I'm going with Tebow.

5) Bengals over Steelers -- I'll admit it, the Steelers' D just isn't what it used to be. It gives up way too many late-game scores and doesn't dominate anymore. And while the Steelers have shown they have an impressive passing game, Big Ben's injured (thumb) and has been inconsistent (despite putting up huge numbers). What worries me is that the Steelers don't seem to know what they are and often seem to be unwilling to play to their strengths by spreading the field and airing the ball out the way the Pats and Pack do. They just don't have that killer instinct, so to speak, and we saw that in their game at Cincy a few weeks ago. After getting off to a great start, they suddenly sputtered, letting the Bengals get back in the game and barely holding on at the end for the win. And full credit to the Bengals, who have a solid D and great offensive leadership in Dalton at QB. I suppose I'll take Pittsburgh, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Cincinnati pulled off the upset.

6) Panthers over Bucs -- Basically, Newton over Freeman. That's what it comes down to. Oh wait, it won't be Freeman, who's likely out. So Newton over Josh Johnson. Carolina can't stop the run, but it's not like the Bucs have a powerful offence. And the combination of Newton, Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and other RB Jonathan Stewart can put up a lot of points when it gets going. Yeah, I'm going Carolina as my #2 upset after Miami.

7) Redskins over Jets -- Two teams I loathe. The Redskins did win in Seattle last week, and Grossman has been playing fairly well, and maybe Shanahan will get the hell out of the way and let Helu be the starting RB the rest of the way, but the Jets are the better team. But the game's in Washington, I have no confidence that Sanchez can play well (despite his four-TD performance against the Bills last week), and the Redskins have enough talent, particularly with Santana Moss back from injury) to make it interesting.

8) Texans over Falcons -- Matt Ryan on the road is much different than Matt Ryan at home. Now, you say, who the hell is T.J. Yates? Good question. We know he's the third-stringer forced into a start due to injuries to Schaub and Leinart, and we suspect that he's not that good, or at least, giving him the benefit of the doubt, can't be good due to his inexperience. But the Texans still have that awesome running game with Foster and Tate and still have a solid receiving corps in all-pro Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels. Yates would have to suck mightily for that offence not to put up points against the Falcons. Plus, on the other side of the ball, the Texans have an outstanding D, led by the likes of LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans and CB Johnathan Joseph, not to mention a solid d-line with tons of sack potential. Yes, Ryan has his weapons, too, but something tells me Houston pulls off the upset in what really shouldn't be considered an upset at all.

9) Giants over Packers -- Just kidding. (Wait, Green Bay has to lose sometime, right? Right? Okay, maybe not. But, you know, it's possible that the G-men take down the Pack at home this week. They've got enough offence to say with Rodgers & Co., and if they get their pass rush back they could actually make it tough for Rodgers to get it going. Seriously.)

10) Cardinals over Cowboys -- Dallas didn't exactly look all that great against the Fins last week and may be looking ahead to the Giants next week. So it's a possible trap game on the road. Do you believe in Romo? Is it possible to believe in Romo? Can he do it? Look, Dallas is by far the better team, and that's my pick, but if Beanie Wells, coming off a huge 228-yard rushing performance last week (the star of my fantasy team, to be sure) after six mediocre-to-bad games in a row, can keep the 'Boys D focused on the run, maybe, yes, just maybe, Kevin Kolb, returning from injury, can hook up with Fitzgerald a few times for big plays. You never know. Any given Sunday and all that.

11) Lions over Saints -- In what could very well be a shootout, you just never know. Certainly we know the Lions can get it going behind Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Saints were pretty awesome last week, though, putting up 49 on the Giants, and there are just too many questions about Detroit's run game.

12) Jaguars over Chargers -- You never know. Any given Sunday and all that. Especially with Norv Turner and the INT machine known as Philip Rivers involved. And the Jags' D is pretty good.

See what I mean? It's quite a week. Three easy locks and 12 possible upsets.

Crazy. Who doesn't love the NFL?

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Tennessee, Kansas City, Miami, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, N.Y. Jets, Atlanta, Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Upset of the Week: Miami.

(Note: Richard is suffering from a bad bout of the flu this weekend. So no analysis.)

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Buffalo, Chicago, Oakland, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego.

Lock of the Week: San Francisco.

San Francisco over St. Louis. Steven Jackson's playing poorly and San Francisco is the first team since the 1928 Providence Steam Rollers to not allow a rushing TD through 11 games. Sam Bradford hasn't shown us that he can beat a team through the air, so I don't anticipate St. Louis giving the Niners much of a fight this weekend.

Upset of the Week: Houston.

The Texans are starting their third-string QB, which has helped them become an underdog in this game. I still think they can win this game. Three factors weigh into this upset pick: Atlanta tends to play notably worse away from home; Houston's defence is vastly improved and can shut down Mike Turner and Matt Ryan; and Houston has one of the best ground games in the league with Ben Tate and Arian Foster in the backfield. They've got a good shot at winning this one.