Romney's path to losing the GOP nomination

By Richard K. Barry

After months of saying that I could not see a path that would have Mitt Romney lose the GOP presidential nomination, I must say that the scales may be starting to fall from my eyes.

And what set of circumstances could lead to Romney's demise, you ask? Well, I guess it would all have to start with a loss in the New Hampshire primary, which until recently seemed unthinkable.

It is now thinkable.

As Ed Morrissey writes at Hot Air:

Yes, I think it's safe to say that the Newt Gingrich bubble has gotten serious. A new poll from Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire -- Mitt Romney's long-held redoubt -- shows Gingrich now in a virtual dead heat with the presumed Republican frontrunner.

As the New Hampshire Journal reports:

The latest NH Journal poll of likely Republican primary voters conducted by Magellan Strategies shows Romney and Gingrich in a statistical dead heat for the January 10th primary. If the election were held today, Romney would earn 29% of the vote and Gingrich would earn 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to show resolve by earning 16%. Herman Cain gets 10%. No other candidate is in double digits.

This is the first time any of NH Journal’s polls have shown anyone candidate even close to Romney. It also shows tremendous movement for Gingrich since NH Journal’s October survey, in which Gingrich was in third place, but at only 10% versus Romney’s 41%...

A close look at the data shows Gingrich is actually leading Romney among certain important subgroups of the electorate. Among self-identified conservative voters, Gingrich beats Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified tea party voters, he leads Romney 38%-21%.

However, Romney has a wide lead over Gingrich among undeclared voters, who give the former Massachusetts Governor 29% over Paul’s 19% and Gingrich’s 18%. There is also a significant gender gap for both Romney and Gingrich. Romney beats Gingrich 33%-22% among women while Gingrich defeats Romney 32%-24% among men.

And Morrissey's analysis, which could be bang on:

Romney doesn't need to win Iowa to garner the nomination; a strong second-place finish there could propel him quickly to the ticket -- but only if he wins New Hampshire. A loss in this state would be a body blow, especially if Gingrich wins Iowa ahead of New Hampshire and then takes aim at South Carolina and Florida. Even a win in Michigan and Nevada might not slow down Gingrich, and Romney could be looking at a second consecutive CPAC concession in his presidential-campaign career if he loses either or both of those.

Previously impossible to imagine, but we may now have an identified path for Romney to blow this thing.

Oh please, please, let it be Gingrich.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)