NFL 2011: Week 9 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I'm a bit under the weather this weekend, dealing with a sinus (as Al Michaels might say), and so I won't be providing my usual lengthy commentary this week.

Plus, I'm extremely anxious about tonight's Steelers-Ravens game. Can we win? Sure. Last weeks' decisive win over the Patriots was one of the best games I've ever seen Pittsburgh play. Belichick and Co. had shown again and again that they knew how to beat the Steelers, but the plan on both sides of the ball was brilliant. A spread offence, where possible, putting the ball in the hands of Big Ben out of the shotgun and allowing him to make plays with probably the best Steelers receiving corps I've ever seen, at least going back to Swann and Stallworth and the glory days of the '70s (when I was too young to appreciate fully what those teams were doing), confusing the Pats' overmatched defence (one without a pass rush and with a terrible secondary), along with aggressive man coverage on defence, slowing down Brady and one of the most potent passing games in the league. On offence, they finally did what I'd been hoping they'd do all season. On defence, they adjusted, something Dick Lebeau doesn't get nearly enough credit for, playing to stop New England's strengths while not handcuffing their own stars (Woodley, for example, was having a huge game before going down to injury).

The Ravens have struggled in recent weeks, losing to Jacksonville in embarrassing fashion two weeks ago and then barely squeaking by Arizona last week. But they'll be up for the Steelers, as they were in Week 1, and with injuries debilitating the Steelers' defence (Woodley and Farrior will be out, but Harrison may be back), I'm just not sure they can stop Ray Rice, and Flacco, who has been mostly awful lately, may be able to do enough to put points on the board. But it's on the other side of the ball that the worry really sets in. The Ravens' defence has been for the most part incredible this year, and Suggs and Ngata in particular are Steeler killers (so to speak). They can spread the offence again to try to take advantage of a secondary that isn't as good as the front six or seven, but Ed Reed finds a way to make turnovers and Roethlisberger won't have nearly as much time as he did last week against the Pats.

Yes, I'm picking the Ravens. I'm also making some picks that seem to be utterly crazy, perhaps due to cold medication.

Anyway, let's do this...

As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty. Below you'll find our picks, plus comments. First, though, here's how we're doing so far:

Last week

MJWS: 9-4 (plus upset, minus lock) = 9 points

RKB: 9-4 (plus upset, minus lock) = 9 points

The Kid: 7-6 (minus lock) = 5 points

We all picked the Saints as our lock. We were all wrong. The NFL is craaaaaaaazy. Who the hell can figure out what's going on from week to week?

Season to date

RKB: 80-36 (4 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 84 points

MJWS: 80-36 (3 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 82 points

The Kid: 70-46 (2 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 66 points

Here are this week's games:

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo

Seattle at Dallas

Atlanta at Indianapolis

Miami at Kansas City

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

San Francisco at Washington

Cleveland at Houston

Cincinnati at Tennessee

Denver at Oakland

N.Y. Giants at New England

St. Louis at Arizona

Green Bay at San Diego

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Chicago at Philadelphia

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: N.Y. Jets, Dallas, Atlanta, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Francisco, Houston, Cincinnati, Oakland, N.Y. Giants, St. Louis, Green Bay, Baltimore, Philadelphia.

Yes, I'm going with both Big Apple (or, should I say, New Jersey?) teams in big-time upsets this week:

-- The Bills looked really good against the hapless 'Skins last week, but I think Rex Ryan will find a way to slow down Buffalo's high-flying offence. The Jets have the corners to shut down Fitzpatrick and Co. Fred Jackson has been outstanding this season, but he alone won't be enough. Meanwhile, while I think the Bills D is rounding into respectable form, the Jets may have just enough firepower to pull this off on the road.

-- Brady and Belichick coming off a bad loss in Pittsburgh, where they were thoroughly outplayed? In the past, this would have meant "fuck you" mode for the Patriots. But this year? Not what that terrible defence. They can't rush the passer and can't cover anyone. And -- gasp! -- Eli Manning is actually playing well and is actually deserving of respect. Crazy, eh? The key battle will be between the Giants' fantastic D-line, led by Tuck, Umenyiora, and Pierre-Paul and the Patriots' good-but-not-as-good-as-usual O-line. If the G-men can get to Brady consistently, if they can even get enough pressure to knock him off his game, it could be two bad losses in a row for the Patriots.

Other thoughts:

-- Miami is a lot better than its o-fer record and may put up a good fight at Arrowhead, but I was really impressed with the Chiefs' D last week against the Chargers.

-- It's always risky taking a west-coast team playing on the east coast, but the 49ers are a lot better than the Redskins.

-- I'm really not sure about Cincy-Tenny. (Tenny?) Andy Dalton has been playing well, but the Titans have a good enough secondary to slow him down. And Chris Johnson has to get it doing at some point, no? (No? Really? He sucks this much?) Still, I'm going Bengals.

A lot of good games this weekend. Enjoy.

Lock of the Week: Dallas.

Just too much talent for Seattle. Yeah, the 'Boys crapped out last week against the Iggles, but they'll be back this week in a blow-out win over Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, the the very awful Seahawks.

Another good pick would be Houston, who should crush Cleveland. And the Falcons over the Colts, of course.

Upset of the Week: Jets? Giants? Jets? Giants? Or how about the Rams (ex of L.A.), who should be able to beat the Kolb-less Cards (ex of St. Louis). San Diego could beat Green Bay. Yes, could. Or how about Baltimore? I've already discussed the Ravens-Steelers matchup -- do the Ravens really qualify as an upset? Yes, by our standards. The Bears? Could they beat Philly? Er, uh, sure. Why not? Same with the Bucs, who are up against a rather inconsistent Saints team. Tebow? No way he and the Broncos beat Carson Palmer and the Raiders, but you never know.

Anyway, I'll go with:

Baltimore. (If I were feeling luckier, I'd take the Giants. I'm picking them anyway, but that's a much longer shot than the Ravens. Same with the Jets.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Buffalo, Dallas, Atlanta, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Francisco, Houston, Cincinnati, Oakland, N.Y. Giants, St. Louis, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia.

Lock of the Week: San Francisco.

Upset of the Week: N.Y. Giants.

Bills vs. Jets: Sometimes I just can't pick teams that I hate, even if reason demands it. The Jets are coming off a bye and should be well rested. The Bills creamed the now hapless Redskins, which could mean complacency. I don't care. Can't stand Rex Ryan. Pulling for the Bills, so, yes, I pick Buffalo.

Dallas vs, Seattle: Again, Dallas really has to win this one. The Eagles are coming on and the Giants are playing okay too. On pure desperation against a weak opponent, the Cowboys will win, or Romo will be working as a bag boy at Piggly Wiggly before the end of the season (if his ribs can stand it).

Falcons vs. Colts: Man, I used to love the old Baltimore Colts. Unitas, Berry, Mackey. I hate to see a proud franchise suck this much. Falcons, of course.

Kansas City vs. Miami: On the one hand, given how well the fish played the Giants for much of last week, they're due for a win. On the other hand, the Chiefs have gone a long way to right a ship that looked like it was sinking in the early going. I'll say Kansas City but won't be surprised if the Dolphins get their first win here. I'm using Jackie Battle to replace Ahmad Bradshaw, so I hope the Chiefs can generate some yards.

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay: My gut tells me that the Saints are on their way to a disappointing season, especially if their O-line can't protect Brees. On the other hand, the Bucs sometimes remember how to win. Still, the Saints are going to be so pissed off after last week's loss. So, Saints.

San Francisco vs. Washington: No brainer. The Niners are flying and the Redskins have crashed to earth like we knew they would. Playoff-bound indeed. Kudos to me for seeing San Francisco as a contender early on.

Texans vs. Browns: No way to pick against the Texans here. I've never been a Cleveland fan, but I sure wouldn't mind it if they could field a decent team every now and again. A great city.

Bengals vs. Titans: Hard to call this game. Could be very close. Both teams playing well, but both offenses are struggling and the Bengals are playing some D. Going with the Bengals.

Oakland vs. Denver: Tebow should be a no-go at QB for the Broncos. He's pathetic. Can't throw the ball in the NFL. Might make a good tight end. Maybe Palmer has learned a few plays by now. Gotta go Raiders.

St. Louis vs. Arizona: Who cares? Is it true that Kolb may not play? Again, who cares? Rams have done the odd surprising thing this year, so I say St. Louis.

Green Bay vs. San Diego: Just on the odds of going undefeated, the Pack has to lose to someone, but not these guys. Nope. Green Bay.

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore: It's all about timing. The Steelers are playing good ball right now. The Ravens not so much. Going with the Steelers.

Philadelphia vs. Chicago: The Eagles have been hot and cold. Now I hear they are the second-best team in the NFC even though they're two games behind the Giants in the NFC East. Give me a break. Still, they should beat Chicago.

Giants vs. New England: With or without Bradshaw, who has been spotty all year anyway, Eli will throw to Manningham and Cruz all day on a weak Patriots secondary, and the Giants' D will put Brady on his ass more than once. G-Men!!!

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Buffalo, Dallas, Atlanta, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Francisco, Houston, Cincinnati, Oakland, New England, St. Louis, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia.

Lock of the Week: Houston.

Cleveland has yet to face a half-decent quarterback this year and Texans QB Matt Schaub has been playing reasonably well of late. Texans RB Arian Foster is also a monster on the ground. With Peyton Hillis being a complete mess so far this season, I think Houston will win by at least 10 points or so.

Upset of the Week: St. Louis.

Not sure how I feel about this pick, but you have to think the Rams are riding a bit of a high after beating the Saints last weekend. (Give me a break, by the way. That was ridiculous.) Arizona is without QB Kevin Kolb -- who isn't any good anyway -- and will be starting a guy I've never heard of. I'll take the Rams here to upset the Cardinals. 

(Photos: The two NY/NJ QBs -- the Jets' Mark Sanchez and the Giants' Eli Manning. Each could lead his teams to a big-time upset this week.)