The power of enemies: How Obama will surge ahead in 2012
Americans
hate Congress but love their congressmen. They loathe big government
and support budget cuts but can't part with any of the specific programs
that contribute most to the national debt.
via Business Insider |
The president's American Jobs Act received a "lukewarm" reception when it was announced, with 45 percent of Americans supporting it, but the specifics of the bill polled much better:
• 56 percent support payroll tax cuts;
• 52 percent support state aid to prevent public-sector layoffs;
• 80 percent support infrastructure investments; and
• 81 percent support small business tax cuts.
What all of these trends and statistics have in common is that they all show the power of faceless enemies.
My
prediction is that when the primary ends and the Republican Party
officially announces its presidential nominee, Obama's national
popularity, his re-election odds, and his unimpressive 44 percent job
approval rating will all rise.
Barack
Obama's biggest problem isn't the economy or the Tea Party. It's not
even that he's too nice, too accommodating, too pragmatic, or too open to
compromise.
It's that he doesn't have an enemy.
The
economy is the biggest concern for Americans right now. But the economy
has no face. It has no name, no agenda, no talking points to be
critiqued by the media, no gaffes that go viral on the web, no shady
campaign donors or fanatical religious beliefs to cast doubt on its
leadership abilities. It can't hurt Obama's re-election odds that a majority of Americans still blame George W. Bush for the current state of the economy, but Obama doesn't have the option of campaigning against the economy or Bush. People want answers, not finger-pointing.
The
Tea Party may be the most obvious thorn in the administration's side,
particularly because its strictly anti-government radicalism has been
embraced by today's mainstream Republican Party and the 2012 GOP
presidential candidates. But the Tea Party isn't a person either.
One
can't make an enemy out of a leaderless group of astroturfers,
especially when the main appeal of the "movement" is that it gives
anti-government fanatics permission to bark racial slurs, construct
misspelled anti-Obama protest signs, and show up to rallies dressed in
goofy outfits – Uncle Sam suits, Native American headdresses, 18th-century Paul Revere garb (sans the "bells and whistles"), and, sometimes, for whatever reason, Captain America costumes.
When
grandma makes a racially inappropriate comment, you don't chastise her
and call her a bigot. You shrug it off, ignore her, and change the
subject. Out of respect for grandma, that is exactly how Obama has dealt
with the Tea Party. But to a fault. Neither Obama nor Democrats nor
progressives have mounted a counterattack.
Tea
Party members targeted Obama as Public Enemy No. 1 even before Rick
Santelli coined the term "Tea Party." Filibuster-happy and Tea
Party-fearing Republicans in Congress have since adopted the
anti-constitutionalist language of the far right as a justification for
thwarting the president's agenda. Not only have they tried to repeal
every major initiative he's signed, but they've threatened to shut down
the government and force America into default when their exact demands
aren't met.
Disgruntled progressives who confused "Change We Can Believe In"
for a neoliberal mandate have accused the president of being a sellout,
a "progressive in name only," a traitor, and a closeted conservative.
The
weight of America's political, economic, and social problems has
understandably fallen on Obama's shoulders alone. He is the president
of the United States, the leader of the free world, and therefore the
common, everyday face of the enemy not only for the 58 million Americans
who preferred a McCain-Palin White House but also for the moderate
Americans who can't escape the daily beatings Obama takes at the hands
of Tea Party-favored presidential candidates, Tea Party-indebted Congress members, and Tea Party-obsessed media.
He
has been called a socialist, a communist, a fascist, a "dick," a
racist, a foreign-born Manchurian candidate, and an anti-Christ. Artists
have depicted him as the Joker, Hitler, Stalin, an ape, and a voodoo
doll.
More
recently, the Republican presidential candidates have met on stage for a
series of nationally televised debates with one goal in mind: ousting
Obama from the White House. While much media attention has been directed
at the domestic policy differences between Perry and Romney and the
foreign policy battles between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, the common
thread throughout each debate has been the consistency with which the
individual candidates refocus their attacks away from each other and
toward the incumbent. Presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann's repeated
call to make Obama a "One! Term! President!" pretty well sums up the sentiments of the entire GOP field.
It
is eight against one, and while the one has been stuck in unpopular
battles with Congress over budget cuts and deficit negotiations, the
eight have been traversing the country telling community after
community, TV audience after TV audience, newspaper after newspaper, and
radio host after radio host just how dismal this country has become
because of President Obama.
That's all going to change.
Less
than a year from now, Republicans voters across the country will have
cast their ballots and decided the party's next presidential nominee,
and he (or, possibly but very unlikely, she) will quickly bear the
burden of representing all that the Teapublican Party stands for. He
(or... Bachmann) will be tasked with the seemingly impossible goal of
turning a fringe movement into a majority movement.
By
then, Obama will be in permanent campaign mode, a terrifying prospect
for any Republican challenger given the expectations that the incumbent –
who was called a "campaign genius," a "behemoth," and a "grassroots
machine" in 2008 – will raise at least $1 billion in the 2012 election
cycle. He will not share the stage with eight candidates but with a
single challenger who will have to explain his past legislative records and offer solutions to the current economic mess.
Obama
will finally have an "Other," a challenger with a face, a record, and a
vision for America that will have to resonate far beyond the Tea Party
demographic.
The
staunch idealists of the far left who believe Obama is a "progressive
in name only" may be loathe to "abandon their principles" and choose the
lesser of two evils, but soon they will be awakened to just how vast
the gap is between their bipartisan, pragmatic incumbent and the
partisan ideologue chosen as the GOP's presidential nominee.
One
made universal health care law; the other (no matter which Republican
wins) has vowed to repeal it. One fought for equal pay legislation for
women, the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," the DREAM Act, the Zadroga
9/11 first responders health-care bill, and a generation's worth of
other progressive initiatives; the other wants to cut taxes on
millionaires and corporations, and supports privatizing Social Security
and voucherizing Medicare. One wants to invest in the nation's future –
infrastructure, education, green technology, and innovation – and make
America competitive on the international level; the other believes a
broke and helpless government is the best government, and that federal
assistance creates dependency rather than opportunity.
Woodrow
Wilson once said, "If you want to make enemies, try to change
something." Obama is trying. The problem to date has been the vast
number of enemies he's created by trying to do exactly what he was
elected to do in 2008: change Washington. By September 2012, the
American people will have a face, an agenda, and a vision for America to
compare and contrast with Obama's, and the progressives who thought
change wasn't coming fast enough will be given a clear choice: progress
that is slow, or a return to the old status quo.
Labels: 2012 election, Barack Obama, jobs, polls, Republicans, Tea Party
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