NFL 2011: Week 3 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

My mood lifted mightily last week, with the Steelers at home shutting out the lowly Seahawks. But it actually wasn't a terribly impressive win. The offensive line can't protect Big Ben (and has already been weakened by injury), and something just doesn't look right on defence. Maybe it's just a matter of time, a veteran team still needing some time to achieve mid-season form. Hopefully.

I'll be in Pittsburgh in a few weeks for the game against the Jaguars. My beloved Steelers have a lot of work to do, and I'd love to see them perform up to (my lofty) expectations.

After a weird, unpredictable Week 1, things got back to normal last week. It was a week for the favourites, and the favourites came through. The one exception was the Ravens, who followed up a dominating (and flawless) performance against the Steelers with a dud in Tennessee against a decent but hardly imposing Titans team. A dud that certainly added to my pleasure last Sunday. Otherwise, New England has some serious holes on defence, but will anyone be able to stop Brady & Co. on the other side of the ball. That's one incredible offence that tore through the Chargers, and the only question this week is whether they'll be in the 40s or 50s against Buffalo. I suppose the Falcons also reasserted themselves with a win over the Eagles, Vick-less at the end. I don't think Atlanta is an elite NFC team, but, as Bill Barnwell wrote in a great analysis of that game over at Grantland, the Falcons exposed the Eagles' glaring weaknesses on defence, providing a "blueprint" for beating Philly.

Alright, to our picks -- which, as you know if you've been here before, we provide each Sunday morning, along with some commentary. And by "we" I mean my associate editor Richard, our friend Comfortable Kid, and I. Here's how we're doing so far. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.

Last week

MJWS: 12-4 = 12 points

RKB: 11-5 = 11 points

The Kid: 11-5 = 11 points

We all got our locks right and our upsets wrong.

Season to date

MJWS: 22-10 (1 upsets right, 0 locks wrong) = 24 points

RKB: 20-12 (0 upsets right, 1 locks wrong) = 18 points

The Kid: 19-13 (0 upsets right, 1 locks wrong) = 17 points

Okay, let's get to this week's games/picks:

New England at Buffalo

San Francisco at Cincinnati

Miami at Cleveland

Denver at Tennessee

Detroit at Minnesota

Houston at New Orleans

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia

Jacksonville at Carolina

N.Y. Jets at Oakland

Baltimore at St. Louis

Kansas City at San Diego

Green Bay at Chicago

Arizona at Seattle

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

Washington at Dallas

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: New England, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tennessee, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Carolina, Oakland, Baltimore, San Diego, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas.

I'm going out on a limb this week with a couple of big upsets: Oakland and Seattle. But I'll get to that in a moment...

There's no stopping the Pats. Even the Bills at home won't be able to put up enough points to keep up. Yes, Brady will miss one of his two stud TEs, Hernandez, but the Bills' defence is still a work in progress, to put it nicely, and there's a good possibility the Pats put up 45+ points this week.

Pittsburgh at Indy? Look, this should be an easy win for the Steelers, but... well, I'm worried. One of these days, Kerry Collins is going to get it together and put up some points (there's no Manning, but there's still a lot of talent on offence: Wayne, Garcon, Clark, even Addai at times), and, as I say week after week, the Steelers tend to play down to their opponents. Even last week against the Seahawks, they seemed to lack... well... for lack of a better word, desire.

I think this is the week we learn for certain that the Lions are for real. If they can go into Minnesota and come out with a decisive victory, we'll have to bump them up into the NFC's almost-elite. The Pack didn't look great against Cam Newton's Panthers, and the Bears will prove to be a tough matchup, but I still think they're the best team in the NFC. The Saints are close, but the Texans could expose their weaknesses on defence. I'm tempted to take Sexy Rexy and the Redskins against the detested (both by me and Redskins fans) and possibly Romo-less Cowboys, but one of these days Washington has to lose, and even Grossman picking apart Dallas's wretched secondary won't be enough.

Lock of the Week: I took Pittsburgh last week. But not this week. That game could be a lot closer than people think. New England? Sure, but if Brady's not on his game for some reason (as unlikely as that may be), Buffalo could simply outscore the Pats in a shootout. If this were a suicide pool, I might take the Titans, who should have no trouble with the Broncos at home. Carolina? I don't believe in Cam Newton that much. So I'm going with San Diego. They haven't been terribly impressive so far this year -- struggling to beat the Vikes at home, then getting thoroughly outplayed by the Pats -- but Kansas City is terrible, not least because of all the injuries (no Charles, no Moeaki, no Berry). This should be a romp. And if somehow the Chiefs pull off the upset, at least I'll be able to enjoy the stunned, helpless look on Norv Turner's face.

Upset of the Week: So... Oakland or Seattle? Oakland is the better team, but the Jets are a lot better than Seattle's opponent, Arizona. The Seahawks have a huge home-field advantage at CenturyLink (formerly Qwest) field and it's possible that Tarvaris Jackson exploits the Cardinals' weak secondary (and weak D generally), but, honestly, I can't go with Jackson over Kolb (even if Arizona has to go without starting RB Beanie Wells). So I'll take Oakland. Maybe the Jets' stifling defence shuts down the Raiders, but it's also possible that the Raiders' underrated defence shuts down the Sanchise. Whatever. I'll risk it. (Besides, I hate the Jets and will be rooting enthusiastically for the Raiders, whom I otherwise generally dislike as well.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: New England, San Francisco, Cleveland, Tennessee, Detroit, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Carolina, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, San Diego, Green Bay, Arizona, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Washington.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh.

Upset of the Week: N.Y. Giants.

Even though everyone, including me, is picking New England over Buffalo, because it's New England, the Bills could be competitive here. Let's all agree that Ryan Fitzpatrick has been interesting so far this year. San Francisco and Cincy is another game that is likely to be close. The Niners beat the Seahawks and should have beaten the Cowboys. At the same time, it's true the Bengals have been competitive. But on the flip of a coin, I'll say Niners. For the Dolphins vs. Browns, I'll pick the Browns based mostly on how bad Miami's defense is. The Titans will beat the Broncos. Hasselbeck to Britt may be enough to ensure that outcome. Lions over the Vikes. Stafford has been good. Minnesota's D ranks 23rd against the pass. If this game is close, it will be because the Lions run defense may have some trouble with AP.

Picking the Saints over the Texans may be my most uncomfortable pick (aside from picking the Giants, which is pure sentimentality). Houston is strong on both sides of the ball, I just like Brees to pull this one out. Untested Gabbert starting for the Jags means a Panther win, plus Cam Newton strong out of the gate. I'm not betting against the Pack, who play "da Bears." It will be interesting to see which Bears team shows up, the one that beat Atlanta or the one that looked weak against the Saints. As for Atlanta against the Bucs, I thought the Falcons would be stronger this year, but they're good enough to beat Tampa Bay. Michael Turner will have a good game. I believe the Redskins will beat the Cowboys if only because of Romo's status, not that I love Romo. Mind you, the 'Skins are going to crash and burn before too long. Cardinals vs. Seahawks? Who cares? Okay, Arizona.

Jets, Ravens, San Diego, Pittsburgh will be fine.

And that leaves my Giants. Even if Vick plays, I'll bet he doesn't play long. And then there is Vince Young, who comes in to lead a new team for him. (Or maybe it'll be Kafka.) Sure, there is no earthly reason to assume the Giants will compete here, but they're due for a good game. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: New England, Cincinnati, Miami, Tennessee, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Carolina, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, San Diego, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Am I allowed to select New England as my lock every week, Michael? No, that would be boring? Okay.

 

Buffalo looks really cool, sure. I think this can be attributed to how low people's expectations were for them heading into this season. I'm not convinced that they're legitimate, but they're certainly moving in that direction. Last week's game against the Raiders was the best game to watch and I wish them continued success, but this week they're lining up opposite the Patriots. New England's defense is soft, but Tom Brady is on pace to throw for 7,520 yards and 56 touchdowns in 2011. That yardage total would best the active record (Dan Marino, 5,084 passing yards in 1984) by a margin greater than Jason Campbell's total passing yardage last year (2,387). Yikes.

Clearly, this furious pace will be mitigated a little (only by Tom's boredom, I suspect), but the last time I saw those numbers, I had created myself as a stud free agent quarterback in PlayStation's Madden 2003 and was throwing bombs to Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. (I won the MVP award that year, bt-dubs.)

 

In any case, real cute start for Buffalo, but I can't see New England putting up less than a 30-burger on Sunday. I don't think the Bills will be blown out, but they certainly won't be winning this game. 

Upset of the Week: Seattle.

Arizona's soft. QB Kevin Kolb has been mildly impressive considering the short season, but their defense is laughable, especially their secondary. I think my boy Tarvaris Jackson plays well enough to win the game and I think it's known how difficult it is to win on the road in Seattle. I'll take the Seahawks in a close game.

(Photos: Three of the best tight ends in the game -- Antonio Gates of the Chargers, Jason Witten of the Cowboys, and Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots.)