NFL 2011: Week 1 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

As I mentioned in our season preview post a few days ago, we're going to be blogging extensively on the NFL this season, including weekly prediction posts featuring picks and commentary by my associate editor Richard Barry and me, as well as by a good friend of ours using the handle "Comfortable Kid." We'll keep track of the results over the course of the season.

I'd like to think we know what we're talking about when it comes to the NFL, but above all this is meant to be fun. We love the NFL and are avid fantasy players as well. It'll be straight pick 'em, no lines. We're not doing this for gambling purposes, after all. We'll each get one point for a correct pick. As well, each week, each of us will provide a "Lock of the Week" and "Upset of the Week." If we get the lock wrong, we lose three points. If we get the upset right, we get three points instead of just one. Bonus!

Maybe these rules will change, maybe not. We'll see how it goes.

We'd love to hear from you, and we invite you to offer your picks and/or thoughts in the comments section. You can tell us we're full of shit, or you can try to be a little more helpful. Up to you. But of course we have the right, and the power, not to approve any comment. That's up to us. Comments on our political posts are often nothing other than moronic ad hominem insults. But this is football. Let's keep this civil. If you choose to participate, play nice. Otherwise, we hope you enjoy what we have to offer.

So... let's do this. Here are the Week 1 games, followed by our picks and comments, preceeded by the year-to-date score (after the Saints-Packers opener):

MJWS: 1-0

The Kid: 1-0

RKB: 0-1

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Atlanta at Chicago

Cincinnati at Clevelend

Buffalo at Kansas City

Philadelphia at St. Louis

Detroit at Tampa Bay

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Indianapolis at Houston

Carolina at Arizona

Minnesota at San Diego

Seattle at San Francisco

N.Y. Giants at Washington

Dallas at N.Y. Jets

New England at Miami

Oakland at Denver

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington, N.Y. Jets, New England, Denver.

Lock of the Week: San Diego. In that suicide pool Richard and I are in (see below), I'm taking Cleveland (because Cincy is terrible and because therefore it's a good week to take a middling team like the Browns). Minnesota may be surprisingly decent this year, but even Norv Turner shouldn't be able to hold his team back this week. The Chargers are elite and will start 1-0 with a huge offensive showing. New England and Atlanta are also solid locks this week, but it wouldn't surprise me if either of them got off to a worryingly slow start this year.

Upset of the Week: Washington. Given the Giants' injuries, I'm not sure this would be a huge upset. Then again, we're talking about a team QBed by Rex Grossman, a team coached by the overrated Mike Shanahan (who is either hapless or hopeless, not sure), a team owned by the wretched Dan Snyder, and a team without reputable "skill" players other than Santana Moss at WR and the injured Chris Cooley at TE.

As a Steelers fan, I'm worried about my Pittsburgh pick. These games are always close and the Ravens are at home. I'm already sick to my stomach. It worries me that I'm so high on my favourite team this year. Are they really that good? Am I missing something?

It's always hard to know what to say the first week. We'll learn a lot, though, from these games. How are the Colts without Manning? Are Vick and the Iggles a worthy challenger to Green Bay in the NFC? Are Detroit and St. Louis for real? Is Norv Turner the only thing standing between the Chargers and the Super Bowl. Will Atlanta be a great show on turf and one of the NFC's elite? Are the Romo-led Cowboys back? Can the Jets finally get over the hump this year? Is Houston a good team and not just a team of great fantasy players? Will the NFC West continue to suck? Etc.

A lot to watch this week.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco, N.Y. Giants, Dallas, New England, Oakland.

A co-worker started a football pool this week with rules I'd never seen before. It's called a suicide pool, or something like that. The way it works is that everyone in the pool picks the winner of one game a week and they can only pick the same team once a season. The first time they're wrong, they're out. It may sound like an easy thing to do, but I don't think so. Apparently, it's a good idea to save the elite teams for later in the season when things are getting down to the wire, so in the early going it's better to pick relatively average teams that are "sure" to win. Turns out that in Week 1, this is pretty hard to do. Does that mean that the bad teams are playing each other and the mediocre teams the same as well as to good teams. Maybe. Anyway, there are going to be a lot of very closely-matched games this week.

New England, Cleveland, Jacksonville, maybe K.C., Arizona, San Diego, and the Texans over a Manningless Colts should be easy to pick. But most of the rest really could go either way. So I took out my coin and flipped it for many of the rest of the games and this is what I came up with. Should be an interesting season.

Lock of the Week: Cleveland.

Upset of the Week: Dallas. I typically don't like the Cowboys, but I think the Jets are vastly overrated.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Houston, Carolina, San Diego, San Francisco, N.Y. Giants, Dallas, New England, Oakland.

Lock of the Week: Dallas. Why? A shot in the dark, really. A hunch. I think there are too many even matchups, and I believe this is among the few that would qualify as an upset. I strongly dislike both teams, but I can see Dallas winning and the "hype train" kicking into full gear shortly thereafter.

Upset of the Week: Chicago is tuurrible. Get ready for Jay Cutler throwing at least two picks, each followed by that camera pan to Lovie Smith pretending that he's not boiling over inside. Bless his heart. Even on the road, Atlanta wins easily.

(Photos: coaches Norv Turner of the Chargers, Tom Coughlin of the Giants, Lovie Smith of the Bears)