Previewing the 2011-12 English Premier League season

By Robert Lawson, International Sports Reporter

(Ed. note: What's past is prologue, as the good bard said. For Robert's recap of the 2010-11 season, see here. As for his preview, it's tough not to see Arsenal near the top, as I've been a life-long Gunners supporter, but, then, I suspect he's right that they'll prove to be something of a disappointment this year, not least because they're just now retooling for the post-Fabregas era. -- MJWS) 

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. With the exception of matches cancelled in the aftermath of riots that spread throughout England over the last week, the 2011-12 English Premier League is set to begin on Saturday and, though it pains me severely to admit it, it is a near certainty that Manchester United will be champions once again. 

Manchester United to Repeat as Champions

Edwin van der Sar, Gary Neville, and Paul Scholes have retired, and Wes Brown and John O'Shea, deemed surplus to requirements, were sold on to Sunderland, but United surely look even better coming into this season. Ashley Young will provide added depth on the wing and youngsters such as Tom Cleverly (who looked terrific in the second half of last weekend's Community Shield) and Danny Welbeck could force their way into the reckoning for places. The possibility of adding Wesley Sneijder into an attack that already includes the likes of Rooney, Berbatov, Nani, Young, and Javier Hernandez is a terrifying prospect for any back line in England.

The only possible concern for Sir Alex Ferguson is the distraction of winning in Europe but, truthfully, it's never been much of a bother before and it won't be now. Indeed, I fully expect United to make it to the semi-finals of the Champions League, at least, while coasting their way to a twentieth English title. 

Champions League Places

To be sure, Manchester City are building a squad capable of challenging their local rivals for the title. After picking up the F.A. Cup and finally qualifying for the Champions League with a third place finish last season, City went out and bought Sergio Agüero from Atlético Madrid for £38m and Gaël Clichy from Arsenal for £7m to strengthen an already formidable squad. While the future of want-away Argentine Carlos Tevez remains uncertain, it is hard to imagine Roberto Mancini not getting City into second place this season. But there's still some distance to go before they're champions.

Chelsea should finally see some return on the investment made last season in Fernando Torres. The hiring of former Porto boss André Villas-Boas is an unusually smart managerial decision by owner Roman Abramovich but this is for all intents and purposes the same team from last year. While I would expect Villas-Boas to extract more from this squad than Carlo Ancelotti did, third seems the limit and the likely destination.

Liverpool owner John W. Henry has sanctioned a massive outlay on players since Kenny Dalglish was appointed manager mid-way through last season with the expectation that it will result in a return to the Champions League this season. Fortunately for him and Liverpool's increasingly anxious supporters, I think King Kenny has done enough to satisfy the yearning at Anfield to be back among the top four. Adding Luis Suárez (recently named player of the tournament at the Copa América) and Andy Carroll in the January transfer window and then Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson this summer into a midfield already bursting at the seams with Raul Meireles, Lucas Leiva, Alberto Aquilani, Maxi Rodriguez, Jay Spearing, and Steven Gerrard (still recovering from injury) is not enough to propel Liverpool into genuine contention for the title but it should see them to a reasonably comfortable fourth place finish. The back four has been a glaring weakness but adding left back José Enrique from Newcastle will help considerably. For what it's worth, Liverpool's competition this year will be much weakened Arsenal and Spurs, not the likes of United, City, and Chelsea. 

The Comfortable Middle

Spurs look to continue their drift out of the "big four" this season having brought in no new players. Indeed, manager Harry Redknapp is likely to spend most of his time and effort this season coddling want-away midfielder Luka Modric, whose head has been turned by neighbours Chelsea, and warding off would-be suitors from around Europe for Gareth Bale.

There seems to be no signs of Arsenal's dreadful finish in the second half of last season abating anytime soon. With Clichy already out the door, Niklas Bendtner half-way out and players already resigned to losing two of the club's best players, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas, the prospects of improvement seem grim. The signing of highly touted 17-year-old Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain from Southampton may help down the road but seems unlikely to yield immediate dividends.

After the top six the quality in the English top flight drops off markedly. The likes of Everton and Aston Villa have once again failed to make the necessary investments to improve their squads.

Everton have once again merely consolidated but Villa's loss of Downing and Young, in particular, will limit the effectiveness of striker Darren Bent. Indeed, Villa seems headed for another frustrating season where goals are hard to come by. The purchase of Charles N'Zogbia from Wigan will help but it's difficult to imagine anything but a mid-table slog this season.

Sunderland, Fulham Stoke, and Bolton will once again provide a few hiccups for the Premier League's big boys but appear no closer to moving beyond their comfortably established mid-table status. 

The Relegation Candidates

Blackburn, Wigan, Newcastle, Wolves, and all three of the Premiership's promoted clubs (Queens Park Rangers (QPR), Norwich, and Swansea) will vie for survival this season.

Newcastle looks set to plummet into the relegation zone with a mass exodus of players over the last six months. Manager Alan Pardew has already lost Andy Carroll, captain Kevin Nolan, and José Enrique, and now has to figure out whether he can keep Joey Barton around. One wonders what he'll have left to work with when the season begins on Saturday.

Blackburn and Wigan, in particular, appear to be sinking like a stone and I could easily see one, if not both, relegated.

Wigan survived by the skin of their teeth last season but I can't fathom manager Roberto Martínez achieving the same outcome this time without N'Zogbia around any longer.

Blackburn are a total shambles on and off the pitch and survival for another season looks impossible to me.

All three promoted clubs have done little to nothing to improve the sides that got them out of the Championship (second division). Fortunately for them, with Blackburn and Wigan looking so abject in comparison, there's a golden opportunity for two of these clubs to avoid the immediate dispatch back down.

In the end, I think it will be Blackburn, Wigan, and Swansea relegated to the Championship when all is said and done. 

Summary of Predictions 

Champions: Manchester United.

Champions League: Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.

Relegation: Blackburn, Wigan, and Swansea.

F.A. Cup: Liverpool

League Cup: Manchester City

First Sacking: Steve Kean (Blackburn)

********** 

Photo 1: Wayne Rooney et al. celebrate for Manchester United. 

Photo 2: Manchester rivals Nemanja Vidić (United) and Mario Balotelli (City).

Photo 3: Three new Liverpool players -- Charlie Adam, Jordan Henderson, and Stewart Downing.

Photo 4: A displeased Arsène Wenger, Arsenal's manager.

Photo 5: Luka Modrić and Gareth Bale in happier times at Spurs.