Virginia Senate race in 2012 looking to be very close (again)

By Richard K. Barry

A Washington Post poll came out a few days ago, which would make the 2012 race for the Virginia senate seat about as tight as possible. The presumptive front runners for their parties, George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D), find themselves with 46% support each if the election were held today. You will recall that Allen was a senator as well as governor of the state, while Kaine also served as governor and was on President Obama's veep shortlist.

In one of the more interesting races of 2006, Democrat Jim Webb beat Allen, who was at that time the incumbent. Despite Allen's early lead in the polls, Webb closed the gap and won by a mere 49.59% to 49.20% margin (or just 9,329 votes). Most observers have attributed Allen's use of an ethnic slur in reference to a Webb campaign worker as contributing to his loss.

Now Webb has decided that he won't seek reelection, which has thrown things wide open likely making Virginia, once again, one of the most interesting races of 2012.

While Allen's behaviour in the 2006 race may continue to be a problem for him, it has been pointed out that Tim Kaine's close relationship to the Obama White House could be an issue for him especially among independents. Look for the Republicans to be airing ads using the cheerleader motif to describe that relationship. I can almost see the pom poms now.

As The Washington Post points out, Virginia has changed dramatically in recent years, noting that:

Kaine draws support in portions of northern Virginia, which has rapidly gained in population, wealth and clout. Allen, the ex-governor and senator, remains strong in the remainder of the state.

Other details of poll as reported by the Richmond Times-Dispatch are that:

• 58 percent of voters approve of the way Kaine handled his job as governor; 55 percent approve of Allen's performance as a U.S. Senator.
• 57 percent of voters have a favourable impression of Kaine; 52 percent of Allen.
• Kaine leads in northern Virginia but trails among independents in the outer suburbs; Allen struggles with female and minority voters.
• Allen is far outpacing his GOP rivals. He had the support of 57 percent of Republicans. Tea Party Candidate Jamie Radke has just 2 percent.
• Kaine would, at this point, also make short work of other Democratic challengers.

As we've commented, it is going to be tough slogging for the Democrats to hold onto the Senate in 2012 as they must defend 23 seats to the Republicans' 10. Virginia would clearly be an essential "keep" if they were to have a chance of doing that.

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama beat McCain in Virginia by a margin of 53% to 47%, but Bush beat Kerry by roughly 54% to 45% in 2004.

Virginia has 11 members of the House. In the 2010 mid-term elections, the Republican picked up 3 seats now holding an 8 to 3 margin over the Dems. In 2008, as a part of the Obama surge, the Democrats took 6 seats to the Republican 5 and prior to that in 2006 the Republican were ahead with an 8 to 3 seat margin.

This one certainly seems to be shaping up to be as close as the polls suggest. Perhaps as much as any place in the country, we'll see what kind of coattails President Obama has.

(Cross-posted to Lippmann's Ghost.)