Democrats lead Republicans in generic 2012 House poll

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It may not mean all that much, not with so much time before November 2012, but Democrats are up on Republicans 50-46 in a new CNN generic ballot poll for the House.

And what's encouraging is that some of the trends we saw in 2010 appear to be reversing (and returning to normal), with Democrats regaining support with some of their core constituencies.

Last year's midterms were driven largely by the bad economy and related anti-incumbent sentiment (and right-wing fear/rage), with voter turnout low overall, as is usually the case for midterms, but dominated largely by whites and seniors, who went solidly Republican.

The economy will still be a key factor next year, of course, but the composition of the voting electorate will change back more or less to what it was in 2008, when Obama won the presidency and Democrats solidified their hold on Congress.

Local factors will be key as well, as will whatever national issues define races across the country, but it isn't out of the question that Democrats will significantly reduce the Republican majority in the House -- and possibly even win back the House should current trends continue and various other factors break their way, and should Obama recover the enthusiasm of 2008.

It may not be likely, but there is reason for cautious optimism.