Will Harry Reid pull out victory from the jaws of defeat at the hands of Sharron Angle and the GOP's Tea Party extreme?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Throughout this campaign season, I have followed Jon Ralston's coverage of the Nevada Senate race at the Las Vegas Sun closely. The man knows what he's talking about, and his coverage has been excellent. He gets why Reid is so unpopular and why, mired in a thoroughly uninspiring campaign, he has had so many problems arousing enthusiasm in his favor, and why Angle, despite her Tea Party extremism and craziness, has managed not just to stay in the race but to surge ahead after being way ahead in June and then falling behind as Reid successfully defined her as a crazy extremist.

And so I take seriously Ralston's latest assessment of how things stand:

It just feels as if Reid is going to lose.

Forget the enthusiasm gap — that word is too mild. There is a passion gap in this race that is palpable. You don't find many people shivering with excitement to vote for Reid. But the feverish animation of voters hot to oust Reid is unlike anything I have experienced in nearly 25 years of covering politics. And it seems to have been building since January, evidenced by Reid's inability to move his highly elevated disapproval rating.

It just feels as if he is going to lose.

And yet... Ralston actually thinks Reid will pull it out. He admits that, with this predictions, he's "walking out on a limb," but both the data and his gut are telling him Reid will win:

Considering they were dealing with a moribund politician, and one who was sure to make their job more difficult during the year with his spontaneous effusions, Reid’s handlers have run one of the most spectacular campaigns in history at all levels: The turnout machine is formidable. The TV has been pitch perfect. The strategy — to peel moderate Republicans and independents who might not like their guy away from Angle — has worked.

And, perhaps equally important, Republicans managed to nominate the one person this year who could lose to Reid.

*****

In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee’s primary win — she had a double-digit lead in June polls — were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.

One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election — under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.

Ralston things it'll be 47-45 for Reid. I have no great love for Reid, and I don't much care for him as Senate majority leader, but I really, really, really hope Ralston's right. The thought of Angle in the Senate, that supposedly august Madisonian body of deliberation, fills me with repulsion. Sure, there are Republican extremists there already -- DeMint, Coburn, etc. -- but Angle would add astounding stupidity that that extremism.

Happy Halloween.