Reform rising

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Jon Chait notes that popular support for health-care reform appears to be on the rise, with a new Economist poll "showing a majority (53-47) support for President Obama's health care plan." More than that, the trend across polls is pretty clear, and it's headed in a positive direction for Obama and the Democrats.

Chait explains:

Why is support rising? My guess is that it's related to Obama's emergence as the primary advocate of reform. For months, the message was mired in Congressional sloppiness and deal-making. Obama is far more popular than Congress, and he commands a stronger platform to communicate the virtues of reform. The best way to win the battle for public opinion is to pass the bill. Then you get a signing ceremony, media coverage of how the legislation will work (the details are popular) rather than the grimy lawmaking process, and a chance to unify support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who have felt the bill doesn't go far enough.

I think this is exactly right. (Plus, people may be tiring of Republican negativity.)

Of course, health-care reform is remarkably popular, including the Obama plan, when people actually know and understand what's in it (i.e., no denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions). (And that's true of seniors and independents, two key groups, as well, as Chait's colleague Jon Cohn finds.) Once you get reform away from legislative sausage-making and Republican propaganda, people really like it.

Regardless, the clear trend among the more general polls, even granting that the Economist poll may be an outlier, is seriously encouraging. And one hopes that Democrats, many of whom remain on the fence, convinced that they'll feel the wrath of their constituents in November, will take encouragement from it.

The "battle for public opinion" isn't over yet, and, with passage and an effective communications strategy, the Democrats could well win it going away.