Reflections on the elections
By Michael J.W. Stickings
I've been trying this morning to put my finger on just how I feel about yesterday, to find the right word for it. I still feel overcome, overwhelmed. I'm euphoric, but not deliriously so, immensely happy, but not without a sense of the difficulties and challengies that lie ahead. Joyous, but also sober. Incredulous, on one level, but also humble. Aware of what happened, but not yet fully.
As I've been telling people today, we have been witnesses to history, to something very, very special, and, in the end, I think we all made a difference.
Obama's victory is our victory, and we are right to celebrate it, and to be deeply moved by it. But now comes the even harder part: governing. There is no time to waste.
**********
I will continue to post on the election today and well into the forseeable future, of course -- for example, I have a "now for the bad news..." post planned for later -- but here, for now, are some quick notes and reflections:
ITEM #1 -- The complete transcript of Obama's victory speech is here.
ITEM #2 -- There was huge voter turnout in this election, relatively speaking: 64 percent, certainly the hightest level in a long, long time. Looking at the figures at the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), an invaluable resource, I see that it would be just higher than turnout in 1960, which was 63 percent, and therefore the highest level at least since 1948. (For more on turnout in the U.S., see here.) Note, though, that is this much lower than turnout in most other mature western democracies (which mostly have parliamentary systems). One notable exception is, alas, Canada, where there was record low turnout for last month's federal election (under 60 percent of registered voters). And so, despite the obvious importance of the election, despite what seemed to be all the excitement, 36 percent of the electorate didn't vote. That's pretty depressing.
ITEM #3 -- Did anyone else notice the awkwardness between McCain and Palin after McCain's quite gracious concession speech last night? It's like they didn't quite know what to do. McCain extended his arm, as if to shake hands, and they did, but only hesitantly. Then they hugged and air-kissed, but coldly. And that was that. They all just sort of stood there, not quite knowing what to do. Even McCain's handshake with Todd was awkward: quick and done with. McCain may have picked her in part because he was smitten with her (and because the right wanted her on the ticket), but, by now, there certainly seem to be some hard feelings between them. And understandably so. It may even be that they don't really like or respect each other anymore. It was a shotgun wedding, a short, intense marriage, and then, implosion. Last night, they might just as well have been a divorced couple signing papers with their lawyers. Let the recriminations begin in earnest.
ITEM #4 -- I'll have more on this later, but it looks like the Democrats may have been held to 56 seats in the Senate, short of what some of us (most of us?) projected. (I didn't think they'd make it to 60, but I thought 58 or 59 was likely.) Of the four races yet to be decided, the Dems may pick up one more, perhaps Alaska or Oregon, giving them 57, or perhaps even both, giving them 58. And I suppose it's possible that a recount in Minnesota could give them that one, too, bumping them up to 59. Possible, but unlikely.
In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, an Obama-friendly moderate, maintains a 48-46 edge over challenger Jeff Merkley. UPDATE (3:45 pm): With 72 percent reporting, it's now 47-47. Smith is still in front.
In Minnesota, in a much-watched race, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, once thought to be possible veep pick for McCain, barely leads challenger/comedian Al Franken. With almost 2.9 million votes cast (and with 100 percent reporting), Coleman is up by just 694 votes (which means it's tied 42-42, with an independent candidate pulling in 15). There will be a recount. UPDATE (3:48 pm): Coleman is now up by just 462. What an incredibly close vote.
In Georgia, incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss, one of the more reprehensible Republicans on Capitol Hill, is ahead of challenger Jim Martin 50 to 47 (with a Libertarian pulling in 3). Chambliss has clearly won, but, in Georgia, a run-off vote is held if no candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote. Actually, Chambliss has 49.9 pecent of the vote, and both he and Martin are already preparing for the run-off. I suspect it is still Chambliss's race to lose.
Finally, in Alaska, incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, a convicted felon, continues to hold off challenger Mark Begich, 48 to 47, with 99 percent reporting. The race has tightened, and still to be counted, as the Anchorage Daily News points out, are about 40,000 absentee ballots (with more still coming in), about 9,000 early votes, and thousands of questioned ballots. "If the lead holds, Stevens will shock the nation and be the first person ever re-elected to the U.S. Senate after being found guilty on criminal charges. Polls had shown the Republican down by at least 8 percentage points on the day before the election." Here's hoping Begich pulls this one out.
ITEM #5 -- It looks like Obama has tapped Rahm Emanuel to be his chief of staff. Emanuel, a long-time Clintonite, is, as you may know, a Democratic Congressman from Illinois. He and Obama apparently have a strong relationship, and he is an insider who would help manage relations with Capitol Hill, but he's not exactly well-liked among the more progressive elements of the Democratic Party. I'm not sure this signifies much. It's too early to conclude that Obama will govern from the "center," or that he will align himself with the less progressive side of the party. What is essential is that Obama have a chief of staff in whom he has full confidence and can place his full trust. Emanuel, in that regard, may be right for the job. He hasn't yet given his answer, or his answer hasn't yet been reported. As Steve Benen suggests, while Emanuel's legislative record may not be terribly to our liking, "his work in the Clinton White House was impressive, and in many ways, he's always been more of an executive branch kind of guy anyway." All I can say is, I hope Obama knows what he's doing. (I suspect he does.) UPDATE (3:54 pm): Emanuel has accepted. Or maybe not -- it's being denied.
ITEM #6 -- Finally, a hilarious headline (and short article) at The Onion: "Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job." Yeah, there's a lot of truth to that. Thankfully, though, it's the right man for the job.
I've been trying this morning to put my finger on just how I feel about yesterday, to find the right word for it. I still feel overcome, overwhelmed. I'm euphoric, but not deliriously so, immensely happy, but not without a sense of the difficulties and challengies that lie ahead. Joyous, but also sober. Incredulous, on one level, but also humble. Aware of what happened, but not yet fully.
As I've been telling people today, we have been witnesses to history, to something very, very special, and, in the end, I think we all made a difference.
Obama's victory is our victory, and we are right to celebrate it, and to be deeply moved by it. But now comes the even harder part: governing. There is no time to waste.
**********
I will continue to post on the election today and well into the forseeable future, of course -- for example, I have a "now for the bad news..." post planned for later -- but here, for now, are some quick notes and reflections:
ITEM #1 -- The complete transcript of Obama's victory speech is here.
ITEM #2 -- There was huge voter turnout in this election, relatively speaking: 64 percent, certainly the hightest level in a long, long time. Looking at the figures at the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), an invaluable resource, I see that it would be just higher than turnout in 1960, which was 63 percent, and therefore the highest level at least since 1948. (For more on turnout in the U.S., see here.) Note, though, that is this much lower than turnout in most other mature western democracies (which mostly have parliamentary systems). One notable exception is, alas, Canada, where there was record low turnout for last month's federal election (under 60 percent of registered voters). And so, despite the obvious importance of the election, despite what seemed to be all the excitement, 36 percent of the electorate didn't vote. That's pretty depressing.
ITEM #3 -- Did anyone else notice the awkwardness between McCain and Palin after McCain's quite gracious concession speech last night? It's like they didn't quite know what to do. McCain extended his arm, as if to shake hands, and they did, but only hesitantly. Then they hugged and air-kissed, but coldly. And that was that. They all just sort of stood there, not quite knowing what to do. Even McCain's handshake with Todd was awkward: quick and done with. McCain may have picked her in part because he was smitten with her (and because the right wanted her on the ticket), but, by now, there certainly seem to be some hard feelings between them. And understandably so. It may even be that they don't really like or respect each other anymore. It was a shotgun wedding, a short, intense marriage, and then, implosion. Last night, they might just as well have been a divorced couple signing papers with their lawyers. Let the recriminations begin in earnest.
ITEM #4 -- I'll have more on this later, but it looks like the Democrats may have been held to 56 seats in the Senate, short of what some of us (most of us?) projected. (I didn't think they'd make it to 60, but I thought 58 or 59 was likely.) Of the four races yet to be decided, the Dems may pick up one more, perhaps Alaska or Oregon, giving them 57, or perhaps even both, giving them 58. And I suppose it's possible that a recount in Minnesota could give them that one, too, bumping them up to 59. Possible, but unlikely.
In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, an Obama-friendly moderate, maintains a 48-46 edge over challenger Jeff Merkley. UPDATE (3:45 pm): With 72 percent reporting, it's now 47-47. Smith is still in front.
In Minnesota, in a much-watched race, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, once thought to be possible veep pick for McCain, barely leads challenger/comedian Al Franken. With almost 2.9 million votes cast (and with 100 percent reporting), Coleman is up by just 694 votes (which means it's tied 42-42, with an independent candidate pulling in 15). There will be a recount. UPDATE (3:48 pm): Coleman is now up by just 462. What an incredibly close vote.
In Georgia, incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss, one of the more reprehensible Republicans on Capitol Hill, is ahead of challenger Jim Martin 50 to 47 (with a Libertarian pulling in 3). Chambliss has clearly won, but, in Georgia, a run-off vote is held if no candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote. Actually, Chambliss has 49.9 pecent of the vote, and both he and Martin are already preparing for the run-off. I suspect it is still Chambliss's race to lose.
Finally, in Alaska, incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, a convicted felon, continues to hold off challenger Mark Begich, 48 to 47, with 99 percent reporting. The race has tightened, and still to be counted, as the Anchorage Daily News points out, are about 40,000 absentee ballots (with more still coming in), about 9,000 early votes, and thousands of questioned ballots. "If the lead holds, Stevens will shock the nation and be the first person ever re-elected to the U.S. Senate after being found guilty on criminal charges. Polls had shown the Republican down by at least 8 percentage points on the day before the election." Here's hoping Begich pulls this one out.
ITEM #5 -- It looks like Obama has tapped Rahm Emanuel to be his chief of staff. Emanuel, a long-time Clintonite, is, as you may know, a Democratic Congressman from Illinois. He and Obama apparently have a strong relationship, and he is an insider who would help manage relations with Capitol Hill, but he's not exactly well-liked among the more progressive elements of the Democratic Party. I'm not sure this signifies much. It's too early to conclude that Obama will govern from the "center," or that he will align himself with the less progressive side of the party. What is essential is that Obama have a chief of staff in whom he has full confidence and can place his full trust. Emanuel, in that regard, may be right for the job. He hasn't yet given his answer, or his answer hasn't yet been reported. As Steve Benen suggests, while Emanuel's legislative record may not be terribly to our liking, "his work in the Clinton White House was impressive, and in many ways, he's always been more of an executive branch kind of guy anyway." All I can say is, I hope Obama knows what he's doing. (I suspect he does.) UPDATE (3:54 pm): Emanuel has accepted. Or maybe not -- it's being denied.
ITEM #6 -- Finally, a hilarious headline (and short article) at The Onion: "Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job." Yeah, there's a lot of truth to that. Thankfully, though, it's the right man for the job.
Labels: 2008 election, 2008 elections, Barack Obama, Congress, John McCain, Obama Administration, Sarah Palin, Ted Stevens, voting
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
1:45 PM
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