Minnesota Senate Recount -- update 1

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Democratic challenger Al Franken seems to be narrowing the gap, but there's still a long way to go. Here's the latest from the Star Tribune:

The U.S. Senate recount continued Thursday without major glitches across Minnesota, as tabulators and the volunteers watching them settled into an increasingly familiar routine of thumbing, counting and sorting.

With about 46 percent of the 2.9 million ballots counted by Thursday evening, the gap between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and DFL challenger Al Franken continued to close. Coleman was leading by only 136 votes, a drop from his unofficial lead of 215 that was confirmed Tuesday by the state Canvassing Board.

Of course, that number -- 136 -- doesn't mean much taken out of context. What matters is where the 46 percent of (re)counted votes are coming from. If they're coming mostly from Franken strongholds like the Twin Cities and the northest part of the state, then one would expect to see Democratic gains. And if that were so, then one could note, pessimistically, that Franken's gains seem to be too small at this point and that Coleman will expand his lead as the recount continues with votes from Coleman strongholds.

However, it looks like the votes have come mostly from pro-Coleman counties. Take a look at CNN's map, then at this updated county-by-county count at the Star Tribune.

Aside from in rural and otherwise less populous parts of the state, Coleman did fairly well in the counties around the Twin Cities, such as Anoka (48), Washington (62), Wright (0), Scott (0), and Dakota (27). The numbers in parentheses are the percentages of votes recounted in those counties. In contrast, Franken did well in Hennepin (42) and Ramsey (30), the counties with Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively, as well as in St. Louis (36), the county in the northeast with Duluth. In other words, while Coleman should pick up votes around the Twin Cities, Franken should pick up even more from the Twin Cities themselves -- Hennepin and Ramsey are the two most populous counties in the state (Hennepin the most by a wide margin). (For a full list of Minnesota counties, with population figures, see here.)

This assumes, however, a correlation between county size (and partisan leaning) and recount adjustment, which may or may not be the case. Again, look at the Star Tribune's count. In Hennepin, Franken's gain is only 14 so far. Compare that to Dakota, the third biggest county. Though Coleman won it easily in the initial count, Franken has gained 32. Meanwhile, Franken has gained 39 in Ramsey and 19 in St. Louis. Coleman's largest gains so far are in Fillmore (14), in the southeast, Washington (13), and Anoka (10). There may not be an exact correlation, and there are obviously exceptions, but the gains are greater in the larger counties than in the smaller ones.

Of course, it's even more complicated than that, because what matters is what precincts within each county the (re)counted votes are coming from. I don't have those figures, but I will note that in St. Louis 36 percent of votes overall from 67 percent of precincts overall have been recounted. This suggests to me that the votes from the larger precincts -- perhaps those in Duluth, presumably Franken's stronghold within a stronghold, remain to be recounted.

And there is also the not insignificant matter of challenges. Earlier in the day, Coleman was well ahead, suggesting that his campaign was being far more aggressive. Nate Silver actually accused Franken of being "too nice":

Their incentive to do so might be as follows: whichever candidate leads at the end of the first phase of the recount process -- before the canvassing board reviews any challenged ballots -- will be able to claim some sort of moral highground. By being able to deduct ballots from their opponent's total essentially at will, the campaigns increase the likelihood that they will in fact lead at the end of the first-phase count with each additional ballot that they challenge.

As it turns out, Franken has overtaken Coleman on this front, 414 to 409. Given how close the race is, it is likely that the recount will be followed by an intense battle over challenged ballots.

According to Eric Kleefeld at TPM, the Franken campaign is "feeling good about the recount," both because the recount will be "[moving] into more pro-Franken precincts" and because, in the words of Franken's lead lawyer, many of Coleman's challenges are "clearly non-meritorious, and will not be upheld by the canvass board."

For an updated post on Thursday's developments, see Jerome Armstrong and Todd Beeton at MyDD.

And make sure to keep checking in with the Star Tribune.

And, of course, make sure to check back here for updates.