Media narratives, flip-flops, and the numbers

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Judging from the way the major news media, as well as some in the blogosphere, are covering the presidential race, you'd think Obama was on the verge of a major collapse, or that his campaign had turned into a complete disaster, and that the race had turned into McCain's to lose.

Flipping this way, flopping that way, pissing off the netroots and his heretofore enthusiastic progressive base on FISA and corporate immunity, appearing to shift on Iraq, assaulting the Constitution like a conservative, talking up guns and a closer union of church and state, veering shamelessly to the center on core issues like abortion and death penalty, sounding more and more like a Republican (and like Hillary in the long lead-up to the Pennsylvania primary) with each passing day, and exhibiting, as one of his more well-known and outspoken supporters labels it, "hubris," a campaign "far too cocky for its own good" -- with all this, and more, it hasn't been one of Obama's stronger periods, and he's been taking some major hits, not least because of how the media have presented it all.

Meanwhile, McCain's been having his own problems, but there hasn't been nearly as much talk from the talking heads about his own and much more egregious flipping and flopping and flipping back again on major issues like Iraq and immigration, nor about his ongoing attempts to suck up to the right, particularly to the religious right, and his otherwise completely ridiculous policy positions, including the absurd claim that he will balance the budget and an economic plan that even sympathetic conservative economists are generally uncomfortable with, and his abject ignorance on issues like Katrina and birth control.

Of course, it's not like Obama is getting purely negative media coverage -- maybe it's time for a pro-Obama SNL skit? -- and it's not like McCain continues to get a free pass from the media. But it does seem to me that Obama is being held to a different standard than McCain is, perhaps because expectations for Obama are so high -- and so low for McCain.

Regardless, the numbers tell a different story -- that is, not that one that has Obama on the verge of collapse. As Nate Silver points out, McCain is ahead in Missouri, but not by much, and his lead may be the results of a major advertising campaign there. Obama is ahead in New Jersey -- it's close, but Obama's massive money advantage should give him a boost there once the campaign gets underway in earnest. And Obama has even pulled closer in Alabama, as Republican a state as there is. Meanwhile, a new poll has Obama and McCain tied in another long-time Republican stronghold, North Dakota.

In other words, don't get lost in the weeds. The media have their own narrative to tell, and, as usual, it's not, if I may put it nicely, an entirely accurate one. Obama has high expectations to meet, and he hasn't been meeting all of them in recent weeks -- and I admit that I am genuinely disturbed by his position on FISA, his rethink on Iraq, and his shift to the right on several important issues -- but he's still doing extremely well where it matters: in terms of popular support.