Election scenarios

By Carol Gee

Looking to the past for answers as to what might happen in the presidential elections this year will not give us predictions. One needs a crystal ball in 2008. Pundits, politicians, pollsters and the public are all anxious to know how things will come out during this voting year. I qualify on two counts of anxiousness, as a quasi-pundit (a blogger), and as someone in the public. But I have no crystal ball. What to do?

Finding the answers is not as simple as asking the experts. The experts have sometimes steered me wrong. Serious blogs or cable news programs often have no more wisdom than comedy. I could look for consensus among the pundits and predict from that. I probably will not find consensus there, as they are all over the map on any given day and too often wrong. Pollsters' public opinion results are fleeting and changeable, mostly good for that day only. No help there. Political candidates are notorious for seeing rosy scenarios (pertaining to themselves), or dire predictions (pertaining to their opponent). So I am on my own without a crystal ball. What I have left is experience, observation, hunches and a sixth sense.

Experience -- Having seen lots of presidents come and go gives me the capacity to step back a bit during the election year. What I do not know I try to find out from news or opinion sources that have more experience than I do. Experience is also a factor with all three of the candidates. Inexperience is not a bar to election if the candidate is surrounded with good people. Remembering that inexperience was not an impediment to Senator John Kennedy's election in the 1960s, I can visualize a scenario where Senator Obama has the same talent for picking good people. These people could conceivably him win the election and then help him govern effectively.

Observation -- Reading the best newspapers and watching or listening to public broadcasting avails me of trustworthy observations about objective reality. Good resources for quality up-to-date and comprehensive information are essential to good judgment. RealClearPolitics.com is just such a resource. Memeorandum is another. Many times consistently watching the big picture permits me to infer an overall outcome from within several smaller data points. A great many Obama supporters, including Governor Richardson are unable to articulate why they support him. I am with the Governor in that "there is something" that propels us in Barack Obama's direction. I have observed Obama in action and I like what I see and hear from him.

Hunches -- It is no secret that voters often vote "from the gut," going with a hunch that may not be related to the candidate's position on issues. Having lived in Texas during the term of Governor Bush, I had a hunch that he would make a poor president. This hunch was strong enough that I predicted his defeat in both 2000 and 2004. I have a hunch that the current administration's record of poor governance will somehow influence the outcome of the election, even if only marginally. As for my prediction of who will win in November, remember that my record in '00 and '04 is not so good. But here goes anyway. I think that Senator McCain will lose also. And I have a hunch that this is, again, wishful/magical thinking.

Sixth Sense -- Blog readers choose their favorite opinion makers based on intuitive trust of the blogger. I am in that mold. I have always had a sixth sense about Howard Dean as a leader. It began when he decided to focus on grass roots organizing at the beginning of his tenure. In my opinion he will continue to do a creditable job in leading the Democratic Party. That means I trust him to interpret and enforce the rules of the party, to be fair and evenhanded with the two candidates, and to be a good out-front spokesman for the party, while not assuming that he is THE LEADER of the party. I predict the Democrats will be able to unite around Senator Obama and his chosen running mate in a timely manner, and go on to win the general election at the end of the year.

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)