Mapping the 2008 election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It's a bit too early to rely on polls to predict how the 2008 election will play out -- that is, in terms of Obama or Clinton vs. McCain, although Obama polls better against McCain than Clinton does -- but SurveyUSA has both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in November. In terms of electoral votes:

• Obama 280, McCain 258
• Clinton 276, McCain 262

Click on the links above for the state-by-state details. And here's Kos:

It's amazing how many non-swing states will suddenly be, well, swing states this year, like Texas, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Some of these states become competitive depending on the candidate, like Arkansas and Tennessee for Clinton, and just about everything west of the Mississippi for Obama.

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In all, Obama outperforms Clinton in 33 states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Clinton outperforms Obama in 15 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

They are even in: Kansas and Ohio.

Again, it's a bit early for this. So much could change once the Democratic race is over and through the course of a long general election campaign. For example, SurveyUSA has Obama losing Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as well as Florida, but it seems to me that he would win the first two and possibly the third. Similarly, it has Clinton losing Michigan, Washington, and Oregon, all three of which she could win.

I do think Obama would be the more formidable opponent for McCain, but what this early poll tells me is that the Democrats, as divided as they may currently be, or may currently seem to be, are in good shape looking ahead to November, with both Obama and Clinton beating McCain and many red states genuinely in play for them, including Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and even Texas.

In good shape, yes, but it still looks like it could be awfully close. McCain should prove to be a formidable opponent for Obama or Clinton, and, of course, we haven't seen the worst from the Republican Smear Machine yet. If anything, this poll should serve to remind us not to take anything for granted.