Obama now with "statistically significant lead" over Clinton

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Gallup: "For several days, nationwide Democratic voters' preferences have been shifting toward Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. Now, the Illinois senator enjoys his first statistically significant lead, 49% to 42%, over Hillary Clinton, according to the Feb. 13-15 results. Additionally, the 49% support for Obama represents the high point for him in the daily tracking program.

Momentum? Yes, that's momentum. It may turn -- an Obama loss in Wisconsin and/or big Clinton victories in Ohio and Texas would reverse whatever momentum Obama has built up, not least because the media would have a new story, a new narrative, new drama -- but, as of right now, the trend is clear.

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Meanwhile, one prominent Clinton insider, Harold Ickes, says it may not matter. In his (shamelessly partisan) view, the race will remain close through the remaining contests, but the superdelegates -- those party insiders he is tasked with winning over for Clinton -- will break the virtual tie by annointing Clinton before the convention in August. Just in case, though, he argues that both the votes in Florida and Michigan should now count, or at least that they should have delegates at the convention, even though last year he supported the DNC's effort to strip those two states of their delegates for breaking party rules and moving up their contests. Hypocrisy? Sure. Anything for Hillary.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: "The Clinton campaign just said they have two options for trying to win the nomination -- attempting to have superdelegates overturn the will of the Democratic voters or change the rules they agreed to at the eleventh hour in order to seat non-existent delegates from Florida and Michigan. The Clinton campaign should focus on winning pledged delegates as a result of elections, not these say-or-do-anything-to-win tactics that could undermine Democrats' ability to win the general election."

Plouffe's right -- but of course Clinton is now behind in terms of pledged delegates, as well as in the polls, and Obama has the positive momentum, and is getting some key endorsements, and so the Clinton campaign is looking for any way possible, however egregious, to ensure the outcome it desires -- and thinks it deserves, democracy be damned -- whether it's relying on the undemocratic superdelegates or simply changing the rules.

One other point: The Clinton campaign is still talking up its candidate's alleged "electability" even though the polls suggest that Obama would do far better against McCain than Clinton would. The latest polls have McCain beating Clinton but Obama beating McCain.

For more on all this, see Joe Gandelman over at TMV.