Obama holding small lead in Wisconsin (maybe)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Well, it's Wisconsin Primary Day, at long last, and the polls seem to suggest that Obama is ahead, but not by much, and perhaps not at all.

Obama holds a 13-point lead according to Public Policy Polling, with a lead of 49 to 45 among Democrats and a huge 2-1 lead among Republicans and independents, and American Research Group actually has Clinton up by 6 points, but other polls put Obama's lead at 4 or 5 points.

It's gotten rather negative in recent days, if not uncommonly negative, with both Obama and Clinton campaigning aggressively, and it is evident that Clinton sees an opening and hasn't given up.

And a victory for Clinton would be huge, the sort of "upset" -- though given where Obama was in the campaign not so long ago, namely, well behind, it wouldn't really be much of an upset at all: one would have thought, a while back, that Wisconsin would be a fairly easy Clinton win -- that would rattle the media enough to provoke them to change its myopic campaign narrative yet again, a shocking comeback for Clinton, a stunning defeat for Obama, momentum reversed, or at least the appearance of momentum, the reporting of momentum, the talk of momentum, a significant advantage for Clinton heading towards Ohio and Texas on March 4.

Which is to say, Obama needs to win Wisconsin -- not so much for the delegates but for the positive media coverage and the momentum that flows from it. He has been winning, and winning big, and that winning has, through the media, made him look nearly invincible, but what the media giveth, the media taketh away, and, with a race as close as this one, what the media says, however lacking in context beyond the latest sensation, matters a great deal. All the talk of Obama the frontrunner, of Obama versus McCain, of Obama's momentum, would grind to a halt with an Obama loss.

Even if not much were to change in terms of pledged delegates, and nothing much would change with a close vote and a near-equal allocation of delegates, the result in Wisconsin, particularly one in Clinton's favour, would be taken to mean a great deal.

And so, whether we like it or not, and whether it really does or not, it will.

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Of course, lest we forget, there are also caucuses today in Hawaii. Obama seems to have the advantage there, and perhaps a big one, but every contest (and every delegate) matters in this race. For more, see The Honolulu Advertiser's extensive coverage of the race.