"Tonight marks the beginning of a comeback -- a comeback for America."

By Michael J.W. Stickings

So said Romney in his Michigan victory speech this evening -- according to the current numbers at about 11:45 pm ET, with 94 percent of precincts reporting, he leads McCain 39 to 30 with Huckabee third with 16 and Thompson (4) and Giuliani (3) trailing Paul (6), well back.

It is a comeback, I suppose, but, if a comeback at all, one for Romney, who is now firmly back in the game, not one for America, of which Romney is not the personification, however massive his victory-night egotism.

I have long thought that Romney stood a good chance of capturing the nomination. He is still polling poorly nationally, but he has a lot of money and a strong ground campaign throughout the country. And he has that key intangible -- he actually wants to be president, sees himself as president, and has the single-minded determination that candidates require. It is not difficult to imagine him waking up every morning, looking himself over in the mirror, and saying "Good morning, Mr. President." That's no small thing. Running for president is an arduous task. Of all the candidates in both parties, Romney seems to be the one most up to it.

But let's not make too much of the Michigan vote. The Romney name is big there, after all, what with his father, George, having been chairman of American Motors and governor of the state. A loss in Michigan would have been a disaster for Romney, and, to his credit, he pulled out what should regardless have been an easy win. (And, lest we forget, Romney did win Wyoming. It's not like he hasn't won before.)

As for Romney's opponents, they were bound to struggle in Michigan. McCain is doing well nationally, but he has spent much of his time focusing on New Hampshire, where he pulled off his own more genuine comeback, and South Carolina. He still has a shot at the nomination, and a decent one, but he may have peaked. And since the Michigan results will likely be interpreted by the myopic media as a setback for him -- a new narrative will emerge, with Romney picking up momentum -- McCain will need to rebound from this loss with a strong showing in South Carolina. Meanwhile, Michigan is not a great state for Huckabee -- way too blue, way too moderate, however potentially receptive to his populist shtick -- and though he continues to attract a good deal of support from christianists (and he wants the U.S. to be a christianist country, with the Constitution amended to be "in God's standards," perhaps the craziest and most un-American thing said during the entire campaign so far), which makes him a serious candidate, he may have peaked back in Iowa. If Romney can eat into his support from social conservatives and others on the far right, and he seems to have been able to do so in Michigan, Huckabee will likely decline further.

It continues to look like Thompson is out of it, though he is polling well in South Carolina. A strong showing there could boost his sagging campaign. And Giuliani? One would think that Michigan would be a good state for a liberal Republican -- yes, even for one with a fierce authoritarian streak -- but Giuliani continues to focus on Super Tuesday, not on these early primaries. It's a risky strategy, and his horrendous performance in Michigan, along with his similarly horrendous poll numbers in key states like Florida, suggest it's a risk he shouldn't have taken. Still, Ed Morrissey has a point: "Rudy has to like what he sees in this race. No one's a front-runner now. If Thompson pulls off a surprise in South Carolina, Rudy just about has his strategy vindicated." I wouldn't go that far -- we're a long, long way from vindication -- but it's certainly true that Romney's victory has more or less evened the playing field. Again.

So what now? Well, a lot will depend on South Carolina and Nevada. McCain could win both states, which would propel him once more into the definitive lead, but Romney's victory in Michigan could boost his prospects in Nevada. Huckabee may be done. Giuliani may be done if McCain and Romney pull away in South Carolina and Nevada. Thompson could do well in South Carolina, but his success there would likely be at Huckabee's expense, and to McCain's benefit. In other words, we could soon be looking at a two-man race between McCain and Romney.

Which would certainly not be uninteresting. McCain is by far the more popular national figure at this point, and, for all the up-with-Romney-down-with-McCain talk that will fill the 24/7 news cycle following the Michigan vote, McCain actually did pretty wall, all things considered. And if Thompson and Giuliani fall out of the race, their support could go his way. On the other side, Romney has the money and the ground campaigns to win anywhere. Plus, if Huckabee falls out of the race, and if the race turns into a choice between Romney and McCain, he could attract enough christianist and social conservative support to put him over the top.

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A quick note on the Democratic vote in Michigan: Clinton has won with 55 percent of the vote, but both Obama and Edwards had themselves removed from the ballot when the party took away the state's convention delegates as punishment for holding an unauthorized early primary. So essentially Clinton ran unopposed. Kucinich was the top also-ran with just 4 percent of the vote. However, "Uncommitted" (i.e., mostly votes for Obama and Edwards, as write-ins were not permitted) finished second with a strong 40 percent of the vote. There is no denying that Clinton won or that her win was decisive or that the momentum continues to be on her side, but, as with the Republicans, South Carolina and Nevada will be far more decisive tests of where the party stands. Nevada is a close three-way race, but Clinton faces an uphill battle in South Carolina even after her huge win in New Hampshire.

Also not uninteresting. Indeed, if there's one thing that can be said about this election season so far, it's that it's awfully exciting -- and refreshingly unpredictable.