The internal power struggle in Iran
By AviShalom
Iran’s Assembly of Experts has elected ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as its head.
Rafsanjani, whom Ahmedinejad defeated in a runoff for the presidency in 2005 (after leading narrowly in the first round), now adds to his power base chairmanship of the body that “supervises” the Supreme Leader. Rafsanjani already held the title of head of the Expediency Council, a body which arbitrates disputes between the various bodies in Iran’s maze of institutions.
Already, the new chairman of the "Experts" has clashed with the president, offering more evidence of Iran’s nuclear program being a weapon--a weapon in the country’s internal political power struggle, that is.
Rafsanjani today made a plea for talks with the West, directly countering a defiant speech just a few days ago by Ahmadinejad. Rafsanjani asserted that Iran does not seek a nuclear weapon, whereas Ahmadinejad blustered about Iran’s supposed great progress towards developing its nuclear program.
So what is the Assembly of Experts and what might we infer from its being headed by a rival to the president?
The Assembly of Experts is an elected body, though as with all elected positions in Iran, candidates are first vetted by the the Guardian Council, which is made up of senior clerics (six appointed by the Supreme Leader and six elected by the parliament). (I said it was a "maze" of institutions!)
The most recent elections to the Assembly were in December, 2006. The current Assembly, which Rafsanjani was just chosen to head, will select the replacement to current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, although most likely not till he dies. The Assembly has formal authority to remove a sitting Supreme Leader, though whether it would ever actually do so is impossible to say in a regime that is still this young and hardly fully institutionalized. (As I noted back in December at Fruits & Votes, there is some evidence that Ahmadinejad was hoping to get supporters elected to the Assembly and use it as a base to challenge Khamanei’s tenure.)
The distant runner-up for chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati, currently heads the Guardian Council. The candidate who came in third was Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, often considered a mentor to Ahmedinejad and a possible successor as Supreme Leader.
Mesbah-Yazdi’s chances of becoming Supreme Leader continue to look dim; his student’s presidency has not exactly helped his cause.
There is clearly an ongoing power struggle within Iran, and the institutions are by no means the only place it is being carried out. But it is being carried out in those institutions--possibly more so than in the past. At Fruits & Votes, I have previously discussed in some detail what it might mean--and whether it might be objectively "good" for the West--whether and to what extent the Iranian regime institutionalizes further, that is, the extent to which its insiders play by the written "rules of the game."
(Revision/combination of various posts at Fruits & Votes.)
Iran’s Assembly of Experts has elected ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as its head.
Rafsanjani, whom Ahmedinejad defeated in a runoff for the presidency in 2005 (after leading narrowly in the first round), now adds to his power base chairmanship of the body that “supervises” the Supreme Leader. Rafsanjani already held the title of head of the Expediency Council, a body which arbitrates disputes between the various bodies in Iran’s maze of institutions.
Already, the new chairman of the "Experts" has clashed with the president, offering more evidence of Iran’s nuclear program being a weapon--a weapon in the country’s internal political power struggle, that is.
Rafsanjani today made a plea for talks with the West, directly countering a defiant speech just a few days ago by Ahmadinejad. Rafsanjani asserted that Iran does not seek a nuclear weapon, whereas Ahmadinejad blustered about Iran’s supposed great progress towards developing its nuclear program.
So what is the Assembly of Experts and what might we infer from its being headed by a rival to the president?
The Assembly of Experts is an elected body, though as with all elected positions in Iran, candidates are first vetted by the the Guardian Council, which is made up of senior clerics (six appointed by the Supreme Leader and six elected by the parliament). (I said it was a "maze" of institutions!)
The most recent elections to the Assembly were in December, 2006. The current Assembly, which Rafsanjani was just chosen to head, will select the replacement to current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, although most likely not till he dies. The Assembly has formal authority to remove a sitting Supreme Leader, though whether it would ever actually do so is impossible to say in a regime that is still this young and hardly fully institutionalized. (As I noted back in December at Fruits & Votes, there is some evidence that Ahmadinejad was hoping to get supporters elected to the Assembly and use it as a base to challenge Khamanei’s tenure.)
The distant runner-up for chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati, currently heads the Guardian Council. The candidate who came in third was Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, often considered a mentor to Ahmedinejad and a possible successor as Supreme Leader.
Mesbah-Yazdi’s chances of becoming Supreme Leader continue to look dim; his student’s presidency has not exactly helped his cause.
There is clearly an ongoing power struggle within Iran, and the institutions are by no means the only place it is being carried out. But it is being carried out in those institutions--possibly more so than in the past. At Fruits & Votes, I have previously discussed in some detail what it might mean--and whether it might be objectively "good" for the West--whether and to what extent the Iranian regime institutionalizes further, that is, the extent to which its insiders play by the written "rules of the game."
(Revision/combination of various posts at Fruits & Votes.)
Labels: Iran
posted by MSS at
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