Turkish troops enter Iraq, details unclear

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It is being officially denied, but it seems, according to reports, that "[s]everal thousand Turkish troops crossed into northern Iraq early Wednesday to chase Kurdish guerrillas who attack Turkey from bases there". It is not clear how many troops were involved -- hundreds? thousands? -- but the information comes from two Turkish security officials "speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media". One of the officials said it was "a hot pursuit, not an incursion," while the other said it was "not a major offensive and the number of troops is not in the tens of thousands".

Vague, but worrisome. As Ed Morrissey points out, "[t]he move threatens to destabilize the area most successfully adjusted to the new status of Iraq and bring the US and Turkey into diplomatic conflict". There has long been tension along the border and in the Kurdish areas of Turkey, given the effort by the Kurds to establish an independent state (Kurdistan) that would possibly include parts of Turkey, not to mention the effort by the Turks to block this. Turkey's foremost concern with respect to the Iraq War was that the Kurds would pursue sovereignty more vigorously than they had been able to under Saddam. Yet it has never been clear to me why the Kurds shouldn't have their own sovereign state. The question is what to do with the Kurdish areas of Turkey. This is a territorial dispute, after all, not just a border dispute. Some reworking of the border between Turkey and Iraq would seem to make sense, but of course what makes sense to a detached observer is hardly what makes sense to either side of such a dispute.

The concern is that this "hot pursuit" could trigger an escalation of tension on both sides of the border, not to mention further military action from both sides, that could turn the dispute, or what is essentially a small rebel conflict, into a full-scale war with the U.S. connected to both sides and with a diplomatic resolution looking increasingly unlikely.

Just what Iraq needs, right?

A story to watch, to be sure.

(For more, see Tim F. at Balloon Juice.)