"Hi, can we buy your vote?"
By Michael J.W. Stickings
You can't really blame them. They're politicians. (That's Prime Minister Stephen Harper on the left and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on the right -- below.)
So when they table a budget, which they just did, you have every reason to wonder if they're more concerned with the public good or with their own political fortunes. No -- you don't. It's their political fortunes, stupid. Harper's Conservatives have the most seats in the House of Commons, but they're currently governing with minority status. What they want now is to prepare for the next election, one that may soon come, an election that could put them over the top into majority status. They they'll be able to do some serious conservative governing.
The opposition parties, however, are not playing along -- not all of them, at least. The Liberals and the New Democrats oppose the budget, but the separatist Bloc Québécois will support it. It would have taken the opposition of all three parties together to vote down the budget and to force an election. Now the budget will pass.
And yet the Conservatives will still manage to continue to lay the foundation for the next election, whenever it may come. The budget has hardly been welcomed by all, not least the Liberals ("I've never seen a government... do so little with so much," said Liberal leader Stéphane Dion), but its two main beneficiaries are the two constituencies that hold the key to the Conservatives and their desire to form a majority government: Quebec and the middle class. The Conservatives did unusually well in Quebec in the January 2006 election, and they did better than they had done in recent elections in suburban Ontario, but they'll need to do better still in those constituencies if they hope to win a majority -- there just isn't much else for them to win out west or out east.
Politicians try to buy votes all the time. And with this "family-friendly" budget the Conservatives are obviously trying to buy off Quebec and the middle class (whatever the other winners and losers) -- $2.3 billion a year more for Quebec, a $2,000 child-tax credit for families, benefits for seniors, etc. (No such luck if you're single or Aboriginal or a student or from Saskatchewan or poor or a fiscal conservative -- yes, the right-wing Canadian Taxpayer Federation called it a "Liberal spending budget," hardly a compliment.)
Anyway, that's the 2007 Canadian budget. All we need now is the 2007 election. Then we'll see if the Conservatives succeeded in buying enough votes to govern with a majority since 1993. And, if they did, we'll then see what the Conservatives are really all about.
So when they table a budget, which they just did, you have every reason to wonder if they're more concerned with the public good or with their own political fortunes. No -- you don't. It's their political fortunes, stupid. Harper's Conservatives have the most seats in the House of Commons, but they're currently governing with minority status. What they want now is to prepare for the next election, one that may soon come, an election that could put them over the top into majority status. They they'll be able to do some serious conservative governing.
The opposition parties, however, are not playing along -- not all of them, at least. The Liberals and the New Democrats oppose the budget, but the separatist Bloc Québécois will support it. It would have taken the opposition of all three parties together to vote down the budget and to force an election. Now the budget will pass.
And yet the Conservatives will still manage to continue to lay the foundation for the next election, whenever it may come. The budget has hardly been welcomed by all, not least the Liberals ("I've never seen a government... do so little with so much," said Liberal leader Stéphane Dion), but its two main beneficiaries are the two constituencies that hold the key to the Conservatives and their desire to form a majority government: Quebec and the middle class. The Conservatives did unusually well in Quebec in the January 2006 election, and they did better than they had done in recent elections in suburban Ontario, but they'll need to do better still in those constituencies if they hope to win a majority -- there just isn't much else for them to win out west or out east.
Politicians try to buy votes all the time. And with this "family-friendly" budget the Conservatives are obviously trying to buy off Quebec and the middle class (whatever the other winners and losers) -- $2.3 billion a year more for Quebec, a $2,000 child-tax credit for families, benefits for seniors, etc. (No such luck if you're single or Aboriginal or a student or from Saskatchewan or poor or a fiscal conservative -- yes, the right-wing Canadian Taxpayer Federation called it a "Liberal spending budget," hardly a compliment.)
Anyway, that's the 2007 Canadian budget. All we need now is the 2007 election. Then we'll see if the Conservatives succeeded in buying enough votes to govern with a majority since 1993. And, if they did, we'll then see what the Conservatives are really all about.
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
8:49 PM
7 Comments:
It is interesting that the BQ is willing to play ball with the Conservatives on the budget, because it is pretty much only at the BQ's expense that the Conservatives could gain the seats in Quebec they need to win a majority. (There just are not that many seats they can gain at the other parties' expense outside of Quebec.)
That the BQ is playing along tells me that they fear an election. And in that case, then Harper faces a bit of a trap: Whenever he does anything to upset the BQ constituency, they will be able to bail at a time when they'd have an issue to prevent the Conservatives from getting their majority. But it they remain on board with Harper's budget, then the latter can't get his election, and the status quo remains a little longer, thereby letting the BQ wait for a more opportune moment (for the BQ) to bring on an election.
By
Anonymous, at 9:35 PM
Excellent points, Matthew. I think the analysis in your second paragraph is right on. And it suggests a strange paradox for the BQ. On the one hand, they're now a much weaker party than in previous election cyles. The PQ is struggling provincially, sovereignty isn't the issue it once was (although it may resurface with a vengeance), and in the last election the Conservatives managed to win some of the soft nationalist vote that once propelled the BQ to official opposition status. And yet they are also extremely powerful. They -- and pretty much they alone -- can determine whether or not there will be an election, and when. Sure, the Conservatives could do something outrageous to bring themselves down, but what they need is for the BQ to side with the Liberals and New Democrats on a key confidence vote. But the BQ can, as you indicate, sit and wait for the right time -- and the right time certainly isn't now. In a way, then, the BQ is in an ideal position. It can sit back and wait for the right time to bring the government down even as it watches the government pander to Quebec with money, money, and more money.
As to your point that Conservatives can only win a majority at the BQ's expense, I'd have to look more closely at the situation in Quebec, but it does seem that a soft nationalist position on Quebec backed up by billions of dollars could allow the Conservatives to win both BQ and Liberal seats. If they manage to stick to that old-fashioned, Mulroney-esque approach, they could continue to make serious inroads among the many Quebecois who see Quebec as a distinct society (as a nation, in fact) but who do not want sovereignty, and who are more than happy to take as much money as Ottawa will give them.
By
Michael J.W. Stickings, at 12:12 AM
death to quebec we should bomb there ass!!!
By
Anonymous, at 1:18 PM
There's also the Quebec provinicial election coming up. Harper enjoys a good relationship with current premier Jean Charest, and heaven knows this new money will help keep Charest where he is ("Hey, we're friends! Look what my friend gave us! Will he give the same to my opponent?").
And how can Gilles Duceppe say "no" to money for his province?
Plus, I believe it was the CBC who stated that the BQ's support for the budget puts the PQ leader, Andre Boisclair, in an awkward position.
So, for now, it puts a slight freeze on the parties wanting Quebec sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Liberals and NDP can oppose all they would like without causing an election - and heaven knows they need time. Dion has not yet established himself as a formidable prescence in terms of leadership, nor has he sufficiently solidified his platforms in the eyes of the Canadian people. Layton is losing voters to the Green Party and they need to staunch the vote-bleed somehow.
I'm not fond of this budget - it's directionless, reactionary and feckless in terms of spending. But on the political chessboard, it certainly buys much needed time for everyone. Time for the Liberals to reassert themselves, the NDP to fix their leakage of votes, and time for Canadians to wait for the other Conservative shoe to drop.
By
Anonymous, at 2:30 PM
Oh, that's lovely, Anonymous #1, just lovely.
Some of us were born in (and grew up in) Quebec and happen to like it a great deal despite its problems and nuisances.
Please take you ignorance elsewhere.
By
Michael J.W. Stickings, at 3:47 PM
Great comments, Anonymous #2.
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Michael J.W. Stickings, at 3:49 PM
Michael, yes, I intend to look at the districts that were closest last time and see how dependent the Conservatives would be on BQ seats for their majority prospects. As one of the other comments alludes to, the Green factor may be relevant here (outside of Quebec). Their polling is indeed way up, and it does appear that it is mostly at NDP expense. Would some of the current NDP seats be liable to go Conservative on current polling? Or would those be Liberal seats? My guess is the latter, and if that is the case, then it only weakens the prospects for a Conservative majority.
Anyway, I do plan a look at this over at F&V.
Also good points on the Quebec provincial elections, where a minority government is not out of the question (and that would be a first--well, a first in many decades, at least). The BQ certainly will not want a federal election soon if its provincial counterpart does very poorly this coming Monday.
By
Anonymous, at 7:21 PM
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