Francois Bayrou

By Heraclitus

Here's an interesting article on Francois Bayrou, who's running for the French Presidency along with Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy. He's running as the candidate for a small, center-left Party, the Union for French Democracy (UDF), but is garnering increasing interest and support. Although his party is technically right of center, he sounds, based on this profile, like more a populist, someone who combines conservative social policies and attitudes with more concern for the poor than the major right-wing party. He's also not a life-long member of the French political elite, which is apparently helping him with voters.

But does he have any chance at all? Polls show him gaining on Royal, and suggest that he would beat either candidate if he made it through to the second round. Remember, another third party candidate, Jean-Marie Le Pen, advanced to the second round of voting in the last presidential election in 2002. He was aided by a profound and widespread distaste for both candidates, and for the landscape of French politics generally, which led to a low voter turnout, as well as surprisingly strong showings by all of the Trotskyist parties running in the election (yes, there was more than one), who syphoned votes away from the Socialists.

Could something like this happen again? Given that Bayrou is, unlike Le Pen, not considered a loathsome national disgrace, he should receive even more support from the legions of disaffected French voters. Should he have a chance? I obviously don't know a great deal about the ins and outs of French politics, and for that reason don't have a strong opinion, but if I were French, I would definitely consider voting for him. The way the French political class is manufactured has always turned me off, and were I French, I would probably be itching to vote for an outside. Although I like what little I've seen of Royal, her various foreign policy-related gaffes don't speak well of her ability to lead the country. Everything I've seen of Sarkozy (which, again, is actually very little compared to those living in France) makes me dislike him rather intensely. He seems like the epitome of the careerist, party machine politician, and a product of an extremely corrupt and dishonest party.

That's my poorly informed, superficial, overly emotional stance. But, regardless of my opinion, for the time being Bayrou seems to be mounting a serious challenge for the Presidency.