Brown v. Blair

When will British Prime Minister Tony Blair step down? When, as is expected, will Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown assume the Labour leadership and move over to 10 Downing Street? Last month, I reported that Blair was determined to remain in office for at least another year. But Brown, his long-time rival, apparently wants him to leave sooner rather than later, and the rift between the two men seems in recent days to have reached a critical impasse. From The Guardian:

An all-out power struggle between the chancellor and the prime minister, culminating with allegations of blackmail by Tony Blair and a ferocious shouting match between the two men, appeared last night to have forced Mr Blair to publicly declare as early as today that he will not be prime minister this time next year.

That may not be enough for Gordon Brown, who is understood to have demanded that Mr Blair quit by Christmas, with an effective joint premiership until a new leader is anointed by the party.

Brown has "found himself under pressure to repudiate the move by some MPs to force Mr Blair from office now," and Brown's "Treasury [has] hinted... that it could accept a deal in which Mr Blair stood down by the beginning of May," but "[Blair's] view [is] that Mr Brown is orchestrating a coup against him".

Yes, a coup. There have been "allegations" and "accusations" on both sides, but Downing Street is using the word "blackmail" to "describe Mr Brown's actions over the past few days".

Yes, blackmail. These guys really don't like each other.

The Guardian has an update here. Brown is saying the right things, but his conciliatory comments may reflect "an attempt to head off suggestions that the party was descending into civil war over the succession". Brown may not like Blair, and he may desire No. 10 above all else, but he surely doesn't want civil war and he surely doesn't want to preside over a party in disarray after Blair's departure. His legitimacy -- and perhaps even his popularity -- will depend on him being seen as Blair's natural and inevitable successor, as well as on a legitimate, organic process. If his succession is seen as nothing but an anti-Blair power grab, the result of civil war (if not the precursor to an even bloodier one), he may not be able to keep Labour united, nor to remain in the leadership (should he even acquire it), let alone to defeat David Cameron's Conservatives in the next general election.

Update: Blair has announced that he will step down within a year but has not set a formal timetable. The BBC reports here: "He did not set a precise date but said he would do so in the future -- when it was in the best interests of the country." For additional commentary, see here: "By setting a 12-month timetable for his resignation from Downing Street and saying he will name the day later, he dearly hopes to bring an end to what has without doubt been the greatest threat to his leadership since 1997."