Turkey's temptation
Uh-oh. I know that most of our focus the past week has been on the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, but turn your attention to Iraq for a moment. Not just to the continuing bloodshed in Baghdad and beyond (and there was a good deal more yesterday when, according to WaPo, "[a] suicide bomber killed more than 50 day laborers... in the Shiite shrine city of Kufa") but to the northern border, to the thin line that separates Turkey from Kurdish Iraq.
Britain's Independent is reporting that "[t]he Turkish army may move into northern Iraq if violence by Turkish-Kurdish guerrillas continues". What would be so bad about this? "Such a move could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States, which has repeatedly warned against unilateral action in Iraq."
There are domestic political considerations for the Turkish government, which "is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed in fighting with the guerrillas in the past week," but the possibility that Turkey could move into Iraq, specifically into "one of the few stable areas of the troubled country," suggests that the situation could quickly spiral out of control even beyond the disjointed civil war that is raging in Baghdad and elsewhere.
How would the fragile Iraqi government deal with a Turkish incursion into Kurdish territory? How would the Kurds respond? What would the U.S. do?
If you didn't think the situation on the ground in Iraq could get much worse, well, think again.
Britain's Independent is reporting that "[t]he Turkish army may move into northern Iraq if violence by Turkish-Kurdish guerrillas continues". What would be so bad about this? "Such a move could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States, which has repeatedly warned against unilateral action in Iraq."
There are domestic political considerations for the Turkish government, which "is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed in fighting with the guerrillas in the past week," but the possibility that Turkey could move into Iraq, specifically into "one of the few stable areas of the troubled country," suggests that the situation could quickly spiral out of control even beyond the disjointed civil war that is raging in Baghdad and elsewhere.
How would the fragile Iraqi government deal with a Turkish incursion into Kurdish territory? How would the Kurds respond? What would the U.S. do?
If you didn't think the situation on the ground in Iraq could get much worse, well, think again.
posted by Michael J.W. Stickings at
6:25 AM
3 Comments:
Thanks for spreading the joy. I had no idea this was going on and have already begun to look into this situation for my own benefit. Did you see this Newsweek article? I missed it when it was published. Even more sobering is this BBC story which mentions Iran shelling Kurdish opposition camps in Northern Iraq. This is supposed to be the good part of Iraq.
By
OutOfContext, at 1:24 AM
Interesting parallels here...if I"m not mistaken, the Kurdish guerillas actually killed the soldiers in Turkey. Does this mean that Turkey now have a right to defend itself by going into Iraq or bombing Baghdad for good measure?
By
Anonymous, at 4:07 AM
You're very welcome, Out of Context. Alas, I must sometimes be the bearer of unpleasant news.
There are indeed interesting parallels here, Battlepanda, and I certainly take your point here.
One of the problems -- according to a friend of mine who seems to share your views -- is that Israel has long determined that even the kidnapping of a single Israeli soldier is essentially an act of war. This means that a terrorist organization like Hezbollah can goad Israel into war quite easily. I'm not saying that Israel is necessarily wrong to view the kidnapping of its own citizens as a serious matter, but conflicts like this are often driven by extremists on all sides who have an interest in escalating them. So Hezbollah kidnaps two Israeli solders, then Israel launches a bombing campaign against Hezbollah and key Lebanese infrastructure like the Beirut airport, then Hezbollah launches missiles into Israel, then Israel sends ground forces into Lebanon, then...
Well, you get the picture. By the end of it there could very well be World War III, particularly if Syria and Iran, and then the U.S., are sucked into it.
Anyway, it's true that Turkey has problems with Kurdish guerrillas just as Israel has problems with Hezbollah. But Turkey's very existence isn't threatened the way Turkey is. Certain Kurdish elements may wish to inflict damage on Turkey, but they don't have the capacity to obliterate it. Furthermore, Turkey may indeed need to deal with the situation on and near its border with Iraq, but this whole situation seems to be limited to that narrow region. Bombing Baghdad wouldn't make much sense.
The question, I suppose, comes down to how and when a sovereign state may defend itself. In the past, Israel has, I would acknowledge, defended itself by acting with excessive force (not to mention horrible treatment of Palestinians). I'm not sure that's the case here, where Israel is responding to an act of aggression on the part of Hezbollah (the kidnappings), as well as to the very real threat of missiles launched by Hezbollah against civilian targets in Israel.
By
Michael J.W. Stickings, at 9:47 AM
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