Saturday, November 12, 2005

Dean not doing well for Dems

Or so reports the Post today:

The Democratic National Committee under Howard Dean is losing the fundraising race against Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, a slow start that is stirring concern among strategists who worry that a cash shortage could hinder the party's competitiveness in next year's midterm elections...

From January through September, the Republican National Committee raised $81.5 million, with $34 million remaining in the bank. The Democratic National Committee, by contrast, showed $42 million raised and $6.8 million in the bank.

Bad numbers for the Dems, to be sure.

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Around the blogosphere:

Joe Gandelman at TMV: "The bottom line is: Dean is apparently NOT delivering what the Democrats want and need to mount a spirited campaign against the Republicans."

Otherwise, the right-wing blogs (Don Surber's open trackback is here, The Political Teen's is here) tend to be addressing this story quite eagerly (and gleefully):

See, for example, Ed Morrissey at Captain's Quarters: "With the midterm primaries less than three months away, the GOP has four times as much money in the bank as the Democrats, and they have done much more work in reaching outside of their traditional base for both voters and candidates... By any measure, the Dean chairmanship has been a failure of embarrassing proportions for the Democrats, but now they're stuck with him for at least one electoral cycle."

And Pejman Yousefzadeh at RedState.org: "[I]t is strange and interesting to see that a supposedly unmotivated Republican base is vastly outraising their motivated Democratic counterparts. If you believe the traditional school of thought regarding campaigns and money, you have to think that the amount of money Republicans have on hand will help in 2006."

But John Hinderaker at Power Line looks at it a different way: "The reason why this discrepancy may be immaterial is that nowadays the Democrats depend mainly on a handful of super-rich contributors, who will undoubtedly come through for them next year with massive contributions to the independent Section 527 groups. So I would expect the Republicans to be out-spent once again, regardless of how the 'official' numbers stack up."

I hope he's right, but perhaps it won't matter much:

John Cole at Balloon Juice: "I don’t think money is going to be as important in the ‘06 elections if things stay the way they are now. The Democrats have a motivated and hungry base, while the Republican party is demoralized, angry, weary, arrogant and fractured."

Fair enough, but the Republicans have a way of unifying their disparate elements for the sake of electoral success, and the Democrats haven't exactly been, well, magnetic lately. It's true that the Democrats do have a few "super-rich contributors," like George Soros, who could tip the balance or at least even things out with the Republicans, but it does worry me that Dean isn't doing better to bring in the smaller donors. American politics are still extraordinarily polarized, after all, and the Democrats can't count on "a motivated and hungry base" alone to secure victory next year -- that is, to win back the House and/or the Senate, or at least to reduce the Republicans' majorities in Congress. Plus, a year is a long time in politics. A single event here or there could reenergize the Republicans. And with so much money then their opponents, the Republicans could leave the Democrats once again tasting the bitterness of opportunities lost.

If nothing else, these disappointing numbers should motivate Democrats to do better. (Give, if you can.)

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My previous posts on Howard Dean:

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2 Comments:

  • There are a number of problems with the cited Washington Post pseudo analysis.

    First, they compare figures for a Presidential election cycle, which mobilizes people outside the normal party political activists, to a Congressional/Gubernatorial cycle which mobilizes people who follow politics more closely or are tightly focused on local issues. To get a better view, the (inflation adjusted) figures for 2001 would have to be included.

    Second, they distort the figures they do provide, as demonstrated by the table below:

    Year
    Party / Difference
    Funds Raised
    Cash on Hand

    2001
    Democrats
    na
    na
    Republicans
    na
    na
    Demo as % of Repu
    na
    na

    2003
    Democrats $31 million
    $9.9 million
    Republicans $80 million
    $27 million
    Demo as % of Repu 38%
    37%

    2005
    Democrats $42 million $6.8 million
    Republicans $81 million
    $34 million
    Demo as % of Repu 51%
    20%

    Change
    (in basis points)
    +11
    -17

    Sure, it would be nice to have more money in the bank. But without knowing the balances at the beginning of January, or the specific amounts and purposes of expenditures in the intervening nine months (such as $5 million dedicated to defeating the Repus in Virginia), I cannot say that the decline in the DNC balance indicates any problem at all, let alone a significant one. In fact, the increased effectiveness of fundraising under Chairman Dean's leadership is responsible for the DNC's ability to fund both the 50 state strategy and individual efforts such as that in Virginia.

    The most glaring failure of the WaPo article is that the significant improvement in fund raising effectiveness of the DNC over the nine month period runs directly against the implication of the Washington Post headline and the tenor of its pseudo reportage in this article. In other words, the Chris Cillizza "Special to The Washington Post" report is a carefully crafted lie, calculated to attack Chairman Dean's effectiveness, and based only on the thinnest thread of twisted fact.

    Who is this "Chris Cillizza", anyway?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:06 PM  

  • Excellent comment, Jim. Thanks for the clarification. I'm reading Brock's The Republican Noise Machine at the moment, and I must say I suspected some sort of spin when I read the WaPo article. I'm not necessarily a huge Dean supporter, but I supported him as chairman and I don't think that things are quite as bad as the article suggests.

    By Blogger Michael J.W. Stickings, at 5:41 PM  

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