Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Canada's government falls on no-confidence vote

From The Globe and Mail:

The short-lived 38th Parliament met its demise on Monday night, setting the stage for the longest election campaigns in two decades, as the Liberal government was defeated in a no-confidence vote at the hands of all three opposition parties and the country was launched into official election mode.

The Liberals lost the vote in the House of Commons 133 to 171, beginning a series of events that will propel voters toward the ballot boxes, likely on Jan. 23.

Prime Minister Paul Martin will officially call a federal election on Tuesday.

Martin was leading a minority government -- that is, the Liberal Party had only a minority of seats in the House of Commons, and it was really only a matter of time before the opposition parties, led by the Conservatives, would force a new election by voting down the government in a no-confidence vote. The Liberals have been in power since 1993, after all, and they've been tarnished by allegations of corruption (see my post on the Gomery Report here).

And now? A January election and a campaign running through Christmas:

Mr. Martin said he will visit Governor-General Michäelle Jean at 9:30 EST on Tuesday morning and ask her to dissolve the government, triggering an immediate election campaign likely to run 56 days with a likely hiatus over Christmas. That would mean one of the longest campaigns in recent history. This would also be only other election to run over the Christmas holidays besides the campaign in 1979-80 when former Conservative leader Joe Clark's party was toppled in a budget vote.

And what do the polls say? The Liberals are ahead, but not by much:

[The] Liberals enter an election campaign six percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, but losing ground in Ontario and facing an increased desire for a change of government, a new poll shows...

The poll, conducted between Thursday and Sunday, found that 35 per cent of Canadians would vote Liberal if an election were held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Conservatives and 17 per cent for the [left-wing] NDP...

The numbers have not changed much since the June 28, 2004, election, which produced a Liberal minority government.

Don't count out the Liberals, however. They run an incredible electoral machine, and they may very well surprise on the upside, securing a majority government or at least sustaining their current standing in the House of Commons. But the Conservatives, based largely in the West, are making inroads in Ontario, Canada's heartland and the key to winning a national election. Martin has spent the past couple of weeks handing out billions of dollars in pre-election spending, but he's not a great campaigner and there just isn't much pro-Liberal passion in the electorate. Indeed, it seems rather that the electorate is exhausted after so many years of Liberal rule.

It may be far too early for a prediction, but I think we're headed for yet another Liberal minority government.

For better and for worse.

Note: Keep checking back for regular updates through the campaign period. I may even try to bring in a few guest bloggers to add their expertise.

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6 Comments:

  • I found a very interesting article in Monday's Toronto Star. One of their commentators, Chantal Hebert, noted that in the post-war Canada, minority governments typically return for a second term, and sometimes with a majority. The only exception has been Joe Clark's government in the late 1970s.

    However, I believe that this is the first time the government has been brought down strictly by a non-confidence vote, rather than losing the majority of the house on a bill. So, it remains to see what happens next.

    This is going to be one long, grueling campaign (if the Prime Minister decides to call for the election on Jan. 23, it will be the longest campaign in 21 years), and the mud-slinging has already begun.

    I am not looking forward to door-knocking in the snow.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:57 AM  

  • I wonder about the backlash for the Conservatives and NDP for pushing an election at an inapproriate time. I understand that they wanted to attack the Liberals at their weakest point but time may show that it would have been better to wait until after X-mas. I know I won't be paying much attention until after New Years.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:23 AM  

  • My feeling is that people don't like Harper and can't envision him as prime minister. If the Conservatives had a strong leader in the last election, I think they would've won more votes in the backlash against Liberal corruption. With the first report by Gomery exonerating Martin, I think people will be more forgiving of him. Add to that Harper's poor campaigning skills, and what dylan said (about backlash), I can't see Conservatives gaining anything this election.

    That said, I think the biggest winner over the past year has been the NDP with Jack Layton. He has presented himself as an able leader, articulating his actions in a way that most Canadians can understand. I think it will be gains in his party that will keep Liberals from a majority. (As a side note, I personally wouldn't vote NDP, so my compliments are not party-biased).

    Then again, anything can happen in an election cycle...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:34 AM  

  • Really good analysis. I also think we'll have another Liberal minority -- though I also agree with the above Layton is a remarkably capable NDP leader and could make gains (though I wouldn't vote for him either). I don't see the Conservatives winning a majority. Canadians don't much like Liberal negativity about the Conservatives, but that doesn't mean they'll buy it, and the Liberals will lay it on thick.

    By Blogger Laura, at 3:18 PM  

  • Harper is too enigmatic. He presents himself and his party as centrist now but a lingering whiff of right wing radicality still wafts from him and too many of his candidates.

    Does Harper still think the idea of one province firewalling itself off from the rest of the country would be a good thing? Maybe he thinks all the provinces ought to be firewalled off from one another?

    Is he going to be willing to let the backbench proposal over riding the Charter and doing away with gay marriage onto the floor? There's probably a dozen or more of his peons on those nether benches who'll be just chafing to introduce it.

    Harper's said a lot of things over the years that, if more widely known, would likely make a lot of wobbly voters woozy. He's never disavowed any of those statements either because no one's ever asked him to.

    And never, ever forget that Conservative is the anagram of Voters Cave In.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:12 PM  

  • Harper is enigmatic, Dana?? Explain please!
    It seems to me that Mr Harper has already made his first gaffe by choosing as an opening act of this campaign his vow to allow a free vote in the commons to over-ride the constitutionally protected law of the land. And not just any old law, but one regarding equality among Canadians. I'm beginning to wonder if he isn't a bit obsessed with the gay marriage issue really.
    I'm sorry, but he reminds me too much of a sunday school teacher I endured as a child (who was in no way enigmatic I assure you).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:27 PM  

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