Saturday, November 03, 2012

Romney could take New York

By Frank Moraes

As everyone knows, this election will all come down to the independent voter. So I decided to do a poll of the most independent voters in New York. Well, the most independent vote: Donald Trump. We know he's independent because sometimes he's a Republican, sometimes a third-party candidate, and even a Democrat on occasion.

In this election, Trump is breaking hard for Mitt Romney. Extrapolating from this poll, I predict New York will go for Romney. As with the predictions of Unskewed Polls, this result will likely surprise a lot of people. But should it, really? You know the old saying: as goes Trump, so goes America. President Obama will rue the day he passed up Trump's $5 million offer; that might have turned the independent vote to Obama. Ah, lost opportunities!

People will counter this result by claiming that there aren't nearly enough undecided voters in New York to change the election. I have two responses to this. First, I'm talking about independent voters, not undecided voters. New Yorkers are very independent, especially the 61% of them who say they will vote for President Obama. My second response is, "La, la, la. I can't hear you!"

Others will claim that my sample size is too small. This is ridiculous. Donald Trump is a very big sample size. Also: "La, la, la. I can't hear you!"

So when Tuesday night comes and Fox News announces that Romney has won New York: I told you so. And you will owe me (and to a lesser extent, Dean Chambers) a big apology.

(Cross-posted at Frankly Curious.)

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