Thursday, November 01, 2012

New polls: Obama up in Ohio and Wisconsin (and nationally), Romney campaign sinks deeper into denial

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Ohio (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 45. (Notably, Obama is leading among men as well as women, while Romney only has a four-point lead among whites, "not nearly enough to win the state." Romney's core constituency, it seems: white seniors. That's it.)

Wisconsin (Marquette): Obama 51, Romney 43. (Notably, Marquette had Romney up by one back in mid-October. This result may be an outlier, but it's in line with other polls showing Obama ahead, if not by as much.)

National (NationalJournal): Obama 50, Romney 45. (Notably, this outlet had them tied at 47 in late-September. And it's among likely voters, where polls have shown Romney doing better than among registered ones.)

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign is keeping up the positive spin:

Mitt Romney's top staff offered reporters an endless number of reasons they're going to beat President Obama on a conference call Wednesday. Not included on their list of Romney advantages: a clear lead in the polls. 

"Obama has a political enviroment problem," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said. "He's got an intensity problem, he's got an image problem and he's got a ballot problem — and they all add up to a challenging Tuesday next week."

Maybe they're right, maybe they're not, and of course the race is far from over, but it's clear they're doing their utmost to avoid reality, finding every reason to knock the president down without actually addressing what to them are increasingly problematic poll numbers.

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