Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Thank You, Lord!

By Carl
And she's started out so strong, too!

Bachmann was tagged Monday for referring to her home town of Waterloo, Iowa, where she made her formal run announcement, as the birthplace of movie actor John Wayne.

The actor actually was born in Winterset, Iowa, about 150 miles southwest of Waterloo. John Wayne Gacy, the notorious serial killer, made Waterloo his home for a few years in the 1960s.

It's going to be hard for her to capitalize and improve on a moment like that, you betcha! But I think she has it in her.

I have great hopes for her to hang on there, ignoring the sage advice of political pundits and technicians who will tell her "For God's sake, leave! You'll ruin it for the rest of us!" and instead pay close, egoistical attention to the panderings of the political popcorn pajandrums and stick it out, long and hard.

After all...

"Bachmann's strong rise shows the importance of message and connecting with a core constituency," says Soltis [ed. note: Kristen Soltis, policy research director at The Winston Group, which advises Republicans]. "She has exceeded expectations of those who thought she'd already falter in the bright lights."

"She's shown that she's willing to play ball," she says. "I would not count anybody out at this stage."

Now, she has one thing in abundance, and that's money. Her Congressional campaign took in eye-popping sums, money that may be transferred to her Presidential campaign. Likely, the only candidate with deeper pockets is Mitt Romney. The FEC reports due in July will tell a large tale here.

So we have an ignorant, self-involved popinjay with loads of cash. Of course she has to run as a Republican!

Working against her is a key element to any campaign: her temper. She's already gone through four chiefs of staff in the past year and a half, and that's before the bright spotlights of a presidential campaign have been turned on. Presumably, she wouldn't have jumped in if she was uncomfortable with the people she has on staff now.

Like campaign manager Ed Rollins, whose last successful national campaign was, um, Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984, which basically could have been run by a chimpanzee with a typewriter, given the way the Democrats fumbled about that year.

The only real scenario where Bachmann has any say in the nomination in 2012 is this: she swipes Iowa from (presumably) TX governor Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Mitt has negative ratings from Iowa Republicans in the 50% range, so a strong Bachmann showing, with former MN governor Tim Pawlenty ekeing out second place in the state (as the "not-Bach" candidate) could persuade Romney to stay out of deep red states, and shore up his bona fides in bluer states like New Hampshire and Arizona. This would allow Bachmann a run of the Midwest and mountain states, setting up a battle for Florida and the south, where Romney polls well, but not outrageously well, and would split votes with Rick Perry of Texas.
She can't get enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses, but she could conceivably grab enough superdelegates to make a run at the convention. It would still probably not be enough to get the nod, but it certainly puts her in the position of kingmaker.
All this presumes she can hang in that long. I'm not convinced she'll make it to Iowa. She seems about ready to flame out.
(crossposted to Simply Left Behind)

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