Tuesday, September 21, 2010

If a new Gallup poll comes out and the media don't report on it, does it mean anything at all?

The latest Gallup "generic ballot" poll finds the Democrats actually leading the Republicans, 46 to 45.

That sound you don't hear is the media not reporting this turnaround.

And why? Because it doesn't fit the pro-Republican narrative, the narrative of Republican invincibility, that Republicans feed to them and that they reflexively regurgitate, buying that narrative without thought.


As I mentioned a while ago, I don't take much stock in these polls. It was a big story a few weeks ago when Republicans jumped out to a 10-point lead, 51 to 41, but there hasn't really been a discernible trend this year. It's been up-and-down for both parties, with the Democrats frequently ahead -- not that you'd ever know that if you only listened to the mainstream media and Republican talking heads.

The concern, for our side, has to do with the so-called "enthusiasm gap" -- and that was the concern when the Republicans took that lead. The gap is real, I suspect, but there's still a long time to go before November, and a lot can change. The Democrats will still lose seats in both houses of Congress, but it is quite possible that Republican gains won't be nearly as dramatic as some have suggested.

All Gallup tells us, I think, is that, generically speaking, it's a very close race.

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  • what we should be concerned about is the other tidbit the polls all find, is that the republican "enthusiasm" for voting is FAR greater than democratic!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:03 AM  

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