Monday, November 03, 2008

Predicting the election, by Turd Blossom and me

By Michael J.W. Stickings

For what it's worth, here -- via Ambinder -- is Karl Rove's map going into the election.

It's Obama 338, McCain 220. Over the weekend, I predicted 375 to 163 for Obama. The difference is that Rove gives Indiana (11), Missouri (11), and North Carolina (15) to McCain, whereas I give them to Obama.

Tonight, Election Day Eve, I think that my prediction may be overly optimistic. I can certainly see all three of those states going to McCain. I may change my mind in the morning, but I'm going to stick with 375 for now.

There is the risk, as a thoughtful work colleague was arguing today, of enough of an "Appalachian" vote -- by which I mean the white working-class vote in states where Hillary did well in the primaries -- against Obama to give those states to McCain, along with, however less likely, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, but I think high turnout for Obama among blacks, young people, and new voters, along with Obama's huge advantage among early voters and what by all accounts is an incredible ground campaign and get-out-the-vote effort for Obama, will not only offset but surpass any advantage McCain may have among those "Appalachian" voters.

Anyway, I'll offer my final predictions tomorrow morning.

Here, as promised, is the Rove map:

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