Thursday, October 23, 2008

Obama up big in latest polls

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Polls released just this morning show Obama with solid leads in some key battleground states, prompting Nate Silver to remark that they "present a view of what the world might look like if [he] wins in a landslide":

The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois.

Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

These may be outliers, but they may also add up to a "best-case scenario." The final results will likely be closer, but Obama could win those states by significant margins and could pull off a landslide victory overall.

Either way, what's pretty clear is that McCain's Pennsylvania-or-bust strategy (or, rather, desperate Hail Mary play) is looking more and more like a sure-fire failure.

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