Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Obama reaches new high in Gallup tracking poll

By Michael J.W. Stickings

According to Gallup's tracking poll for October 5-7 -- that is, for the three-day period preceding last night's debate -- Obama holds a 52-41 lead over McCain. The "52% share of the vote is Obama's highest to date."

The trend is pretty clear. Gallup cites "[c]oncern about the economy" as the driving factor, but surely there are other factors at play here: the bursting of the Palin bubble, Obama's strong performance in the first presidential debate (on foreign policy), Biden's strong showing against Palin last week, greater public confidence in Obama (with respect to leadership generally), and McCain's cynical ploy to fake-suspend his work on the Bailout Bill. Democrats may also be more energized now than they were around the time of the RNC, when the Palin pick dominated the news, and independents may be moving to Obama.

The fact is, the race isn't close right now. Obama is well ahead in terms of both the national popular vote and the electoral college vote. There is still time for McCain to close the gap, of course -- anything can happen, I keep telling myself -- but there is no denying that Obama is in a strong position to win the election. (And his lead could increase after his decisive win last night.)

No doubt, though, with the desperation sinking in, the venom and negativity from McCain-Palin will only increase as the election approaches.

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  • To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.



    By Blogger mvymvy, at 8:04 PM  

  • By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:49 AM  

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