Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Biggest. Lead. Yet.

By Michael J.W. Stickings

A new NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up by 10 over McCain, up from just 6 a couple of week ago. It's his largest lead to date.

This gain can be attributed in part to "voters’ increased confidence in his ability to serve as commander in chief... [His] current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45)."

All good signs.


Meanwhile: "Palin's qualifications to be president [or lack thereof] rank as voters' top concern about McCain's candidacy -- ahead of continuing President Bush's policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq."

As for Palin herself, "[i]n the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light."

In my view, the only reason her negatives are so low, relatively speaking, is that many Americans still don't know much about her. As more and more of the truth has come out, her positives have plummeted.


Pew has Obama up by a whopping 14 points, 52-38. It seems to be an outlier, but the internals mirror what's in the NBC/WSJ poll:

Obama's strong showing in the current poll reflects greater confidence in the Democratic candidate personally. More voters see him as "well-qualified" and "down-to-earth" than did so a month ago. Obama also is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates. Most important, Obama now leads McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions by a wider margin (53% to 32%).

There has also been "a widespread loss of confidence in McCain," perhaps "the most significant factor in the race at this point."

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