Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Election about fighting for survival

By Carol Gee

Hillary survives Indiana, barely! Senator Hillary Clinton just barely won more votes than her opponent in the Indiana Democratic primary, held yesterday. With all votes counted, her margin of victory was 51% to Senator Barack Obama's 49%. Ironically, as it stands now, this victory signals that Hillary Clinton now has fewer options than just a day ago. Clinton's campaign is currently on life support, in my opinion. Low on money, lacking support among key elements of the Democratic party, she will ultimately be unable to prevail over her rival with the Super Delegates.

Obama survives North Carolina, easily! At the same time Senator Barack Obama won easily in the North Carolina primary, by a margin of 56% to 42% of the votes cast. The race was "called" for Obama even before the polls closed, using exit polls. Obama's victory speech was powerfully given and enthusiastically received. The front runner looks as if he got back his momentum. The Obama campaign prevailed easily in North Carolina despite just coming out of its most difficult period. In my opinion, the Senator has quickly turned to a general election strategy that will continue his path to the nomination.

This signals the final fight -- Senator Clinton waited until later to deliver her own "victory"speech. She asked for financial support so she can "fight on to the White House," and at the same time promised to fully support the Democratic nominee. Today's conversation will include talk from the Clinton campaign about seating the Florida and Michigan delegations at the Democratic party's August Convention in Denver. The party's credentials committee will meet at the end of this month to decide what to do about those disputes. And Obama will be ready to compromise on credential issues and solidify his eventual support among the former Clinton voters, in my opinion.

Congress will continue to fight with the current administration -- Yesterday, our current president (OCP) sent over a new slate of FEC commissioners on which Congress can begin to chew. If any serious legal disputes pop up along this lengthy election path, they would have theoretically be settled by the Federal Election Commission, still crippled by a lack of sitting members. This is where my optimism weakens. Congress may weaken and allow partisans to gain seats, setting up the possibility of election mischief. But, given the generally positive election mechanics results, we may just be able to survive the entire election cycle and elect Senator Obama in November. Let us hope!

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)

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