Thursday, February 21, 2008

Popular vote update through 19 February contests


Through the primaries and caucuses of 19 February, the cumulative popular-vote percentages of the candidates are as follows.

49.44 Obama
44.90 Clinton
02.95 Edwards
00.33 Kucinich
00.12 Gravel
02.26 others

39.86 McCain
29.45 Romney
20.85 Huckabee
04.63 Paul
05.20 others

Yes, that's right: Obama is closing in on a majority of the popular vote and now leads Clinton by nearly five percentage points. So much for his winning streak resting on small states! Seems there are some Obama voters in the states Clinton is "winning," too. Presumably they also count. Through Super Tuesday (5 Feb.) it was Clinton 46.55, Obama 47.08.

And that's also right: McCain has yet to crack 40% of Republicans, and Huckabee's percentage continues to grow. Through Super Tuesday it was McCain 38.32, Romney 32.56, Huckabee 18.99. Since Romney dropped out, Huckabee's vote percentage has grown more than McCain's.

(Cross-posted at the temporary home of Fruits & Votes.)

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  • Texas alone would give Hillary the popular vote majority.

    Then what are Obombers going to do, quote the Supreme Court Gore v. Bush?

    By Blogger Carl, at 5:26 PM  

  • You are assuming, of course, that Hillary will win Texas big...

    By Blogger Michael J.W. Stickings, at 6:00 PM  

  • It is virtually impossible that Clinton could overcome Obama's vote lead no matter how far ahead she might be in the vote in Texas (or even Texas and Ohio). It is even more absurd to suggest, as Carl does, that Texas could take her from just under 45% to over 50%. Not going to happen.

    Obama's current lead in votes is more than 900,000. Is Clinton going to win 75% of the vote in Texas? It would take something tectonic like that.

    By Blogger MSS, at 2:21 PM  

  • The biggest margin in raw votes anyone has had in this campaign in a state so far is in Illinois, where Obama beat Clinton by over 600,000. Even in New York, a bigger state and one won by their Senator, the margin was only 305,000. In California--vastly larger than Texas--her margin, which was over 9 percentage points, amounted to 398,000 votes.

    At the conclusion of Super Tuesday, Obama's cumulative lead in votes was only 87,799. Now it is 911,657. Wow, thanks Carl for prompting me to look this up. I did not expect his lead to have grown ten-fold in such a short time!

    By Blogger MSS, at 2:34 PM  

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